中国电煤转运模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 01:21

本文选题：电煤运输　切入点：供需影响　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电煤转运指的是电煤从坑口生产后运输到电煤需求地的过程中需要经过不同运输方式之间的转换。由于中国电煤产地与需求地严重错位,电煤资源获得到利用通常需要长距离运输,从而导致电煤转运不可避免。电煤良好转运将对中国社会产生积极作用。一方面从运输角度看,电煤良好转运能减小中国运输压力,缓解运输瓶颈;另一方面从社会福利角度看,电煤良好转运能减少运输成本,从而增加社会总效益。然而,目前学术界对中国电煤转运研究大多是对电煤转方运输方式比较、对电煤转运政策研究,对电煤转运缺乏定量指导。所以,电煤转运现状仍然复杂,社会总成本仍然居高不下。本文在前人电煤转运研究的基础上,从电煤供需实际出发,以运输最小成本为目标,对中国电煤转运建模进行研究。最终通过运用该模型,指导中国电煤转运。首先,本文分析中国电煤供需影响。从宏观环境出发,对中国电煤转运PEST分析。政治、经济、社会及技术四个方面的变化,都将对中国电煤供需产生影响。电煤产地、需求地变迁,也将会影响中国电煤供需结构。其次,本文对中国电煤运输系统进行研究。中国电煤转运涉及到公路、铁路及水路之间相互转换,因此,需要对各自运输方式及转运特点进行比较。通过比较电煤转运方式,然后分系统分析中国电煤转运现状。再次,在研究中国电煤供需情况及转运现状基础上,建立中国电煤转运模型。再根据中国电煤转运实际情况,进行模型优化,最终得出符合中国电煤转运实际的模型。最后,运用2015年中国发电数据以及电煤供给数据,对该模型进行验证。模型计算结果表明,2015年中国电煤运输成本为390.72亿元。在每万公里单位运输里程上,2015年中国电煤实际单位运费成本为45737.26元,而模型单位运输成本为42992.77元。因此,在单位运输里程上,该模型能较少电煤运输成本2744.49元,减少6%的单位成本。因此,本文模型能减少中国电煤运输成本。
[Abstract]:Power coal transportation refers to the transition between different transportation modes during the process of coal transportation from pit to power coal demand area. Because of the serious dislocation between the origin and demand of power coal in China, The utilization of thermal coal resources usually requires long distance transportation, which leads to the inevitable transportation of thermal coal. Good thermal coal transport will have a positive effect on Chinese society. On the one hand, from the perspective of transportation, good thermal coal transport can reduce the transport pressure in China. On the other hand, from the point of view of social welfare, a good transportation of thermal coal can reduce the transportation cost and thus increase the overall social benefit. However, at present, most of the researches in the academic circles on the transport of thermal coal in China are compared with the mode of transportation of the power coal to the other side. Therefore, the present situation of thermal coal transport is still complex, and the total social cost is still high. Based on the previous research on thermal coal transport, this paper starts from the actual supply and demand of power coal. Taking the minimum cost of transportation as the goal, this paper studies the modeling of coal transport in China. Finally, the model is used to guide the transport of electric coal in China. Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence of supply and demand on coal supply and demand in China. The PEST analysis of China's thermal coal transport. The changes in political, economic, social and technological aspects will have an impact on the supply and demand of China's power coal. The change of power coal production area and demand location will also affect the supply and demand structure of China's power coal supply and demand. Secondly, In this paper, the transport system of thermal coal in China is studied. The transportation of electric coal in China involves the interconversion of roads, railways and waterways, therefore, it is necessary to compare the transport modes and the characteristics of each other. Thirdly, on the basis of studying the supply and demand of China's coal supply and demand and the current situation of coal transport, the model of China's thermal coal transport is established, and then the model is optimized according to the actual situation of China's electric coal transportation. Finally, we get a model that accords with the actual power coal transport in China. Finally, we use the data of power generation and coal supply in China in 2015. The calculation results show that the transportation cost of thermal coal in China in 2015 is thirty-nine billion seventy-two million yuan, and the actual unit freight cost of thermal coal in China in 2015 is 45737.26 yuan per 10,000 kilometers per unit mileage. The unit transportation cost of the model is 42992.77 yuan. Therefore, in the unit transportation mileage, the model can reduce the unit cost of coal transportation by 2744.49 yuan, and reduce the unit cost by 6% yuan. Therefore, the model in this paper can reduce the transportation cost of thermal coal in China.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F426.21

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