动力煤价格影响因素的研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 08:17

本文选题：动力煤 + 价格　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：动力煤是我国煤炭资源中的核心战略资源,占煤炭的主体。2016年随着国家出台了一系列的动力煤产业政策,动力煤的价格也受到显著影响。在动力煤供给侧改革的大背景下,动力煤价格一路上涨,并且一改往年来动力煤价格低迷的状态,在2016年迎来了近几年比较罕见的大幅度上涨。动力煤现货价格的基本面研究也受到了越来越多的关注。文章对动力煤的基本面概况进行了详细地研究。文章分析了动力煤资源的分布、动力煤的供给、动力煤的需求、动力煤的供需平衡;又进一步研究了动力煤的库存,对动力煤的全社会库存进行拆解,分别研究了动力煤的生产地的坑口库存、动力煤的中转地的港口库存以及动力煤的消费地的全国重点电厂库存;又接着对动力煤的成本及盈亏预算进行了分析。在对动力煤现货基本面研究的基础之上,文章构建了动力煤价格影响因素五位一体的分析框架,并对动力煤价格影响因素做了实证分析。文章选取动力煤价格指数为被解释变量,动力煤的供给、动力煤的需求、动力煤的供需缺口、动力煤的全社会库存为解释变量,建立了计量模型,对动力煤价格的影响因素进行实证分析。首先对这五组变量进行单位根检验,发现这五组变量为非平稳变量。如果直接对这五组变量进行回归分析,会存在“伪回归”现象。因此,要对这五组变量进行差分将其变平稳。在此基础上,进行了协整检验,结果发现动力煤的库存和动力煤的供需缺口之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。又通过格兰杰因果检验发现,动力煤的供给、动力煤的供需缺口和动力煤的库存是动力煤价格指数的格兰杰原因。而且动力煤的库存和动力煤的价格指数二者之间互为双向因果关系。为脉冲响应分析做铺垫,文章建立了VAR模型。通过脉冲响应函数发现,动力煤的库存、动力煤的供需缺口对动力煤的价格指数的冲击所产生的反应相对较大,变量的脉冲传递体现显著,且影响较为持续。最后,文章得出了动力煤价格影响因素的实证结论,并且提出建议。
[Abstract]:Thermal coal is the core strategic resource of coal resources in China, which accounts for the main part of coal. With the introduction of a series of industrial policies of thermal coal in 2016, the price of thermal coal has also been significantly affected.Under the background of the reform on the supply side of thermal coal, the price of thermal coal has been rising all the time, and the price of thermal coal has been rising by a rare margin in recent years in 2016.The fundamental research of spot price of thermal coal has also been paid more and more attention.The basic situation of thermal coal is studied in detail in this paper.This paper analyzes the distribution of thermal coal resources, the supply of thermal coal, the demand of thermal coal, the balance of supply and demand of thermal coal, and further studies the inventory of thermal coal and disassembles the whole society inventory of thermal coal.In this paper, the pothole inventory of thermal coal production site, the port stock of thermal coal transfer site and the national key power plant inventory in thermal coal consumption area are studied respectively, and then the cost and profit and loss budget of thermal coal are analyzed.On the basis of the fundamental research on the spot of thermal coal, this paper constructs a five-in-one analysis frame of influencing factors of thermal coal price, and makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of thermal coal price.This paper selects the price index of thermal coal as the explanatory variable, the supply of thermal coal, the demand of thermal coal, the gap between supply and demand of thermal coal, the whole social inventory of thermal coal as the explanatory variables, and establishes the metering model.The influence factors of thermal coal price are analyzed empirically.First, the unit root test of the five groups of variables is carried out, and it is found that the five groups of variables are non-stationary variables.If the regression analysis of these five variables is carried out directly, there will be pseudo regression phenomenon.Therefore, the five sets of variables must be differential to make it stable.On this basis, cointegration tests are carried out, and the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between thermal coal inventory and the gap between supply and demand of thermal coal.Through Granger causality test, it is found that the supply of thermal coal, the gap between supply and demand of thermal coal and the inventory of thermal coal are the Granger reasons of the price index of thermal coal.Moreover, the stock of thermal coal and the price index of thermal coal are two-way causality.VAR model is established for impulse response analysis.Through impulse response function, it is found that the gap between supply and demand of thermal coal is relatively large in response to the impact of price index of thermal coal, and the pulse transfer of variables is significant and the influence is more continuous.Finally, the paper draws the empirical conclusion of the influencing factors of thermal coal price, and puts forward some suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21;F764.1

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