基于系统动力学的我国煤炭市场调控研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 01:20

本文选题：煤炭市场 + 遗传算法　；参考：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：因为我国能源结构的特点是“富煤、贫油、少气”,能源的生产和消费一直以煤炭为主。作为我国的主体能源,煤炭的供需问题与我国经济的发展和社会的进步密切相关。长期以来,煤炭的生产一直保持着平稳的发展速度,但是煤炭市场却不是一直保持着供需平衡。改革开放之前,由于煤炭市场的供不应求,使得我国经济发展受到严重制约。改革开放初期,我国经济结构逐步调整,煤炭产量基本满足国民经济快速发展的需要,但逐渐地,煤炭市场呈现出供大于求的局面,而局部地区又会出现供应紧张。煤炭市场经常处于供需不平衡的状态。所以分析我国煤炭市场供需平衡的因素,并找出使煤炭市场处于稳定状态的相关对策就显得尤其重要。本文研究目的就在于此。本文首先阐述了煤炭市场的相关理论,以及我国煤炭市场的供需现状,分析影响煤炭供需平衡的相关因素,选取合适的变量因素,建立煤炭价格-供给-经济增长系统。通过数值仿真,研究系统中各因素间的动态演化关系。结合历史统计数据,借助遗传算法,确定系统中相关参数的取值,使之具有现实意义,提出使煤炭市场处于稳定状态的调控政策。接着分别从单一调控策略和两种策略组合的角度,分析调控政策对煤炭市场稳定性的影响。然后以2015年我国煤炭消耗强度为基准,分析单一调控策略和组合策略的实施降低煤炭消耗强度的程度。综合调控政策,分析得出本文结论:要想使我国煤炭市场保持供需平衡,并有效降低煤炭消耗强度,就要在开发新能源,使用清洁能源,产业结构调整,加强市场自身调控能力,政府适时行政干预的基础上,根据我国煤炭市场的动态,及时调整调控策略,实时监控,才能达到预期效果。
[Abstract]:Because China's energy structure is characterized by "rich in coal, lean oil, less gas", energy production and consumption has been mainly coal. As the main energy of our country, the supply and demand of coal is closely related to the economic development and social progress of our country. For a long time, coal production has maintained a steady development rate, but the coal market has not always maintained a balance of supply and demand. Before the reform and opening up, because the coal market supply exceeds the supply, our country economy development is seriously restricted. At the beginning of reform and opening up, China's economic structure was gradually adjusted, and the coal output basically met the needs of the rapid development of the national economy. However, gradually, the coal market showed a situation of oversupply, and the supply in some areas would be tight. The coal market is often in a state of imbalance between supply and demand. So it is very important to analyze the factors of supply and demand balance of coal market in our country and find the relevant countermeasures to make the coal market stable. This is the purpose of this study. In this paper, the relevant theories of coal market and the present situation of supply and demand of coal market in our country are expounded, and the relevant factors affecting the balance of coal supply and demand are analyzed, the appropriate variable factors are selected, and the system of coal price-supply-economy growth is established. Through numerical simulation, the dynamic evolution relationship between various factors in the system is studied. Based on the historical statistical data and the genetic algorithm, the relevant parameters in the system are determined, which is of practical significance, and the regulation and control policy is put forward to make the coal market in a stable state. Then, from the angle of single control strategy and combination of two strategies, the influence of regulation policy on coal market stability is analyzed. Then, based on the coal consumption intensity of China in 2015, the paper analyzes the degree of reducing coal consumption intensity by the implementation of single control strategy and combination strategy. In order to keep the balance between supply and demand in China's coal market and effectively reduce the intensity of coal consumption, it is necessary to develop new energy, use clean energy and adjust the industrial structure. On the basis of strengthening the control ability of the market itself and the government's timely administrative intervention, according to the dynamic of the coal market in our country, adjusting the control strategy in time and monitoring in real time can achieve the expected effect.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21

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