区域煤炭资源规划综合评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 03:32

本文选题：评价指标体系 + 隶属函数　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国煤炭资源储量占全国已探明化石能源储量的85%左右,煤炭消费量占全国能源消费量的62%左右,长期来看,煤炭仍将占据我国能源结构的主体地位。我国煤矿大多采取粗放型发展模式,不利于煤炭的科学开采和行业的健康发展。本文以可持续发展理论及系统工程为基本指导思想,采用模糊层次综合评价法,通过评价指标体系的建立、评语集的确定、评价系统的开发等构建煤炭资源综合评价模型,并结合淮南矿业集团进行实例科学研究。主要研究结论如下:1)建立了区域煤炭资源规划综合评价指标体系,确定了各指标的权重系数。将指标体系划分成4层:通过专家调研及DPSIR模型确定了资源评价模型的目标层、准则层、要素层和指标层。目标层即区域煤炭资源规划评价;准则层包括4项要素,即地质条件、安全及开采技术条件、资源环境条件、社会经济效益条件;要素层包括12项要素,即煤层、煤质参数、地质构造、煤矿开采技术等;指标层包括44项要素,即可采煤层厚度、煤层埋深、煤矿稳定塌陷土地治理率、规划区植被覆盖率、环保法规执行情况、年度煤炭产量、煤炭产业营业收入、煤炭生产成本、单位产值能耗等。同时,本文给出了各项指标详细的解释以及指标值计算方法,通过对13位煤炭领域专家调研,确定了各指标的权重系数。2)采用半梯形分布函数作为评价指标隶属函数,并将模型评语集划分为优、良、中、差四项。本文中隶属函数存在两种情况,即“半模糊隶属函数”和“完全模糊隶属函数”。对于取值越大,正效应越大的评价指标,采用升半梯形分布函数来描述他们的隶属度。对于取值越大,负效应越大的评价指标,采用降半梯形分布函数来描述他们的隶属度。3)设计并完成了区域煤炭资源规划综合评价系统的开发工作。区域煤炭资源规划综合评价系统开发的主要目的在于实现信息的有序管理,对区域煤炭资源进行综合评判等。本评价系统主要包括三大板块,即系统交互界面、数据库管理系统、模型库管理系统,主要功能模块包括系统用户管理、系统数据存储、系统数据库管理、系统模型库管理、评价分析模块、帮助及保存与退出功能等。4)完成了淮南矿业集团多级模糊综合评价实例研究。综合地质条件、安全及开采技术条件、资源环境条件、社会经济效益条件,对淮南矿业集团下属九座矿井张集矿、谢桥矿、顾桥矿、丁集矿、潘三矿、朱集矿、顾北矿、潘二矿、潘四东矿进行详细的研究分析,给出了各矿评价等级和开发建议。
[Abstract]:The reserves of coal resources in China account for about 85% of the proven fossil energy reserves in China, and the coal consumption accounts for about 62% of the national energy consumption. In the long run, coal will still occupy the main position in the energy structure of our country. Most coal mines in China adopt extensive mode of development, which is not conducive to the scientific exploitation of coal and the healthy development of the industry. With the theory of sustainable development and system engineering as the basic guiding ideology, the comprehensive evaluation model of coal resources is constructed through the establishment of the evaluation index system, the determination of the evaluation set and the development of the evaluation system. And combined with Huainan Mining Group to carry out a case of scientific research. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the comprehensive evaluation index system of regional coal resource planning is established, and the weight coefficient of each index is determined. The index system is divided into four layers: the target layer, criterion layer, element layer and index layer of resource evaluation model are determined by expert investigation and DPSIR model. The target layer is the regional coal resource planning evaluation, the criterion layer includes four elements, namely geological conditions, safety and mining technical conditions, resources and environment conditions, social and economic conditions, and the element layer includes 12 elements, that is, coal seam, coal quality parameters, and so on. Geological structure, coal mining technology and so on, the index layer includes 44 elements, that is, mining seam thickness, coal seam depth, coal mine stable collapse land treatment rate, vegetation coverage in planning area, implementation of environmental protection laws and regulations, annual coal production, Coal industry operating income, coal production costs, unit output energy consumption, etc. At the same time, the detailed explanation of each index and the calculation method of index value are given in this paper. Through the investigation of 13 experts in the coal field, the weight coefficient of each index is determined, and the semi-trapezoid distribution function is used as the membership function of evaluation index. The model comment set is divided into four items: excellent, good, medium and poor. In this paper, there are two kinds of membership functions, that is, "semi-fuzzy membership functions" and "completely fuzzy membership functions". The higher the value is, the greater the positive effect is, and the ascending half trapezoidal distribution function is used to describe their membership degree. The lower half trapezoid distribution function is used to describe their membership degree. 3) the comprehensive evaluation system of regional coal resource planning is designed and developed. The main purpose of the comprehensive evaluation system of regional coal resources planning is to realize the orderly management of information and to make comprehensive evaluation of regional coal resources. The evaluation system mainly includes three parts, namely, the system interactive interface, the database management system, the model base management system, the main function module includes the system user management, the system data storage, the system database management, the system model base management, the main function module includes the system user management, the system data storage, the system database management, the system model base management. Evaluation and analysis module, help and save and exit function. 4) completed the Huainan Mining Group multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation case study. Comprehensive geological conditions, safety and mining technical conditions, resources and environment conditions, social and economic conditions, Zhangji Mine, Xie Qiao Mine, Gu Qiao Mine, Ding Ji Mine, Pan San Mine, Zhu Ji Mine and Gu Bei Mine of Huainan Mining Group, The detailed research and analysis of Paner Mine and Pansidong Mine are carried out, and the evaluation grades and development suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TD82

【参考文献】