北方砂岩型铀矿成矿分析及我国铀消费量预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 17:25

本文选题：砂岩型铀矿 + 灰色系统GM（1　；参考：《吉林大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：砂岩型铀矿是目前世界上重要的铀矿产出类型之一，，也是铀资源总量中占据优势的铀矿矿种。世界著名的中亚铀成矿带为砂岩型铀矿成矿带；铀矿资源作为重要的核能源，已经成为国民经济能源结构中的重要组成部分。本文首先对世界铀矿及砂岩型铀矿进行概述，根据地质作用对典型铀矿床进行分类。其次，对国外砂岩型铀矿从四个不同时期进行现状阐述；将国外砂岩型铀矿与我国砂岩型铀矿现状进行对比分析，分析表明目前我国铀矿资源仍以砂岩型铀矿为主，其中以北方中新生代盆地为主要找矿目标。北方巨型盆地包括松辽盆地、塔里木盆地、二连盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地等等。作者在综合前人关于砂岩型铀矿的分类模式的基础上，依据6种分类标准重新对砂岩型铀矿进行划分。在分类研究的同时，重点探讨了我国北方砂岩型铀矿成矿模式，并将其与中亚砂岩型铀矿及北美砂岩型铀矿成矿模式进行类比，类比区域包括乌兹别克斯坦的中卡兹尔库姆矿区、哈萨克斯坦的门库杜克矿区及美国的加斯希尔斯矿区。结果表明，砂岩型铀矿勘查研究以及储量分布构成我国铀矿资源的重要组成部分。我国经济的快速发展必然导致能源供应紧张，铀矿资源已经成为我国能源消费中的主体，呈现供不应求的状态，铀矿资源产出与消费矛盾日益突出。本文收集了我国1998-2013年铀资源消费量数据，以Matlab计算软件为平台，分别建立三种定量模型对2014年与2015年铀资源消费量进行预测。预测模型包括灰色系统GM（1,1）模型、一元线性回归模型及BP神经网络分析。同时，分别给出了上述三种方法的后验差检验、显著性检验及误差百分比值，并根据2013年铀消费量的实际值与预测值分别给出三种方法所得结果的误差率。预测表明，三种定量模型方法预测的结果相当，预测的误差都符合检验标准。最终选定误差值最小的方法，即BP神经网络方法来对2014年和2015年铀资源消费量进行预测，预测值分别为7764吨和8210吨。得出的铀资源消费量为预测估算值，对今后的我国铀矿资源供需平衡具有一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:Sandstone-type uranium deposits are one of the most important types of uranium deposits in the world at present, and they are also the dominant uranium deposits in the total uranium resources. The world famous uranium metallogenic belt in Central Asia is a sandstone-type uranium metallogenic belt, and uranium resources, as an important nuclear energy, have become an important part of the energy structure of the national economy. This paper first summarizes the world uranium deposits and sandstone-type uranium deposits and classifies typical uranium deposits according to geological processes. Secondly, the present situation of sandstone-type uranium deposits in foreign countries is expounded in four different periods, and the present situation of sandstone-type uranium deposits abroad is compared with that of sandstone-type uranium deposits in China. The analysis shows that sandstone-type uranium deposits are still the main resources of uranium deposits in China at present. The Mesozoic and Cenozoic basins in the north are the main prospecting targets. Northern giant basins include Songliao Basin, Tarim Basin, Erlian Basin, Ordos Basin and so on. Based on the previous classification models of sandstone-type uranium deposits, the author reclassifies the sandstone-type uranium deposits according to six classification criteria. At the same time, the metallogenic model of sandstone-type uranium deposits in northern China is discussed, and the metallogenic model of sandstone-type uranium deposits in Central Asia and North America is compared with that of sandstone-type uranium deposits in North America. Analogy areas include Uzbekistan's Middle Kazkum, Kazakhstan's Menkouduk, and the United States' Gashires. The results show that the study of sandstone-type uranium deposits and the distribution of reserves constitute an important part of uranium resources in China. The rapid development of China's economy will inevitably lead to a tight supply of energy. Uranium resources have become the main body of energy consumption in China, showing a state that supply exceeds supply, and the contradiction between the output and consumption of uranium resources is increasingly prominent. In this paper, we collect the data of uranium resource consumption from 1998 to 2013 in China, and establish three quantitative models to predict uranium resource consumption in 2014 and 2015 based on Matlab software. The prediction model includes grey system GM-1) model, univariate linear regression model and BP neural network analysis. At the same time, the posterior error test, significance test and error percentage value of the three methods are given, and the error rates of the three methods are given according to the actual value of uranium consumption in 2013 and the predicted value. The prediction results show that the prediction results of the three quantitative model methods are similar, and the errors of the prediction are all in line with the test standard. Finally, the method of minimum error, BP neural network method, was chosen to forecast uranium resource consumption in 2014 and 2015. The predicted values were 7764 tons and 8210 tons respectively. The uranium resource consumption is predicted and estimated, which has a certain guiding effect on the balance of supply and demand of uranium resources in China in the future.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P619.14

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