中国煤炭产能系统动力学预测与调控潜力分析

发布时间：2018-05-28 18:05

本文选题：煤炭产能 + 情景预测　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年05期

【摘要】：基于中国煤炭产能及其影响因素之间的反馈机制,开展了中国煤炭产能系统动力学预测与调控潜力的研究.研究认为:1)十三.五期间中国煤炭产能仍将持续增长,政策情景下中国煤炭产能2020年将达到46.35亿吨,较之于基准情景减少5.09亿吨;2)政策情景下中国煤炭供过于求的压力显著大于基准情景,2020年供需缺口达到6.46亿吨,其根源在于政策情景下煤炭需求得到了有效控制,而基准情景下煤炭供需缺口的相对减小则是煤炭供需过度增长的结果;3)调控情景下我国煤炭产能在2020年达到44.20亿吨,较之基准情景降低7.23亿吨,落后产能淘汰、煤炭进口限额、煤炭价格管制以及煤炭投资约束是煤炭产能调控的关键.
[Abstract]:Based on the feedback mechanism between China's coal production capacity and its influencing factors, the prediction and control potential of coal productivity system dynamics in China are studied. The study holds that one is thirteen. China's coal production capacity will continue to grow during the five-year period. Under the policy scenario, China's coal production capacity will reach 4.635 billion tons by 2020. Under the policy scenario, the pressure of coal oversupply in China is significantly greater than that in the benchmark scenario, and the gap between supply and demand reaches 646 million tons in 2020, the root of which lies in the effective control of coal demand under the policy scenario. However, the relative reduction of coal supply and demand gap under the benchmark scenario is the result of excessive growth of coal supply and demand. Under the control scenario, China's coal production capacity will reach 4.42 billion tons by 2020, which is 723 million tons lower than the benchmark scenario, and backward production capacity will be eliminated and coal import quotas will be limited. Coal price control and coal investment constraints are the key to coal capacity control.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;中国矿业大学国际能源政策研究中心;中国矿业大学环境科学与工程博士后流动站;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71273259,71403267) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJCZH144) 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2014WA02) 江苏高校国际能源政策研究中心建设资助项目~~
【分类号】：F426.21

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