基于系统动力学模型的我国锡矿资源保障度研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 04:38

本文选题：锡矿 + 资源保障度　；参考：《中国矿业》2017年10期

【摘要】：锡是中国优势矿产之一,在1991年被列入保护性开采特定矿种。由于近年来开采过度、资源回收利用率低、找矿难度大等因素,导致中国锡矿资源未来可持续开采和消费保障度快速下降,按现行的矿种规划与管理无法适应锡矿长期开采、回收与进出口的战略布局。本文根据2004~2014年锡矿历史数据,以缩小供需差为目标,通过分析产量、需求量、进口量、储量与资源保障度的关系提出5种政策方案,运用系统动力学模型预测5种方案下锡矿2015~2025年的资源保障度变化情况。结果显示到2025年产量维持在9.2万t左右、回收利用率达到30%可以使锡矿开采和消费保障度分别提高52.6%和56.3%,加强资源后备储量能大幅提升锡矿未来保障度,控制生产、提高回收利用率将有利于优化中国锡矿供给结构,降低供应风险。根据模型结果提出要合理制定生产指令性计划严控产量,加强回收利用制度建立,加大国内勘查力度、实施缅甸佤邦一带投资并购等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Tin, one of the dominant minerals in China, was included in protective mining in 1991. Due to some factors such as excessive exploitation in recent years, low utilization rate of resources recovery and difficulty in prospecting, the degree of sustainable exploitation and consumption guarantee of tin ore resources in China in the future has declined rapidly. According to the current mineral type planning and management, it is unable to adapt to the long-term exploitation of tin ore. The strategic layout of recycling and import and export. Based on the historical data of tin ore from 2004 to 2014, and aiming at reducing the difference between supply and demand, this paper puts forward five kinds of policy schemes by analyzing the relationship between output, demand, import quantity, reserves and resource guarantee. The system dynamics model is used to predict the change of resource guarantee degree of tin ore from 2015 to 2025 under five schemes. The results show that the annual output is maintained at 92000 tons by 2025, and the recovery utilization ratio of 30% can increase the degree of tin mining and consumption security by 52.6% and 56.3% respectively. Strengthening the reserve reserves of resources can greatly enhance the future security degree of tin ore and control production. Increasing recycling efficiency will help to optimize the supply structure of Chinese tin ore and reduce the supply risk. According to the results of the model, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as making production directive plan, strictly controlling production, strengthening the establishment of recycling system, strengthening domestic exploration, and carrying out investment and merger and acquisition in the WA area of Myanmar.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院;中国地质调查局发展研究中心;
【基金】：中国地质调查局地质调查项目“地质调查发展路线图与管理政策研究”资助(编号:DD20160087)
【分类号】：F426.1

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