经济新常态下中国矿业供给侧改革发展战略研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 05:51

本文选题：新常态 + 供给侧改革　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年07期

【摘要】：矿业是经济社会发展的基础产业。在当前中国经济进入新常态和矿业长期低迷的形势下,要合理推进矿业供给侧改革,必须理清经济增长、城镇化与矿产资源消费之间的长期关系,需要依次回答:是否存在长期关系,这些关系有什么作用特征,这些作用的变化趋势如何,不同矿产资源是否存在显著的区别,针对这些区别如何提出应对策略。基于上述问题的判断,本文选取9种矿产资源,利用多种方法进行了组合分析。应用脱钩指数刻画了1978—2015年中国经济增长与矿产资源消费的脱钩关系,发现呈现一种周期性的脱钩和复钩过程;选取经济增长、城镇化和任意一种矿产资源消费为变量,建立了VAR模型,揭示各变量间的因果关系,将显著的因果关系分为三种类型,包括循环因果链(三种变量之间存在显著的接替性循环变化的关系,包括煤炭、锌、原铝和钾盐等)、两两互为因果(某两种变量之间存在一种或两种显著的双向交替变化关系,包括原铝、锌、钾盐、石油、精炼铅、精炼镍等)和单向因果(某两种变量之间仅存在一种显著的先后变化关系,包括铁矿石、精炼铜、精炼镍)等;运用脉冲响应函数刻画了上述关系的长期变化趋势,发现矿产资源消费的长期效应的大小及其波动频率有显著差异,大多数矿产可以持续效应10年以上(如煤炭、石油、锌、原铝等消费变动对GDP变动的影响),少数响应仅在5—6年内显著(如铁矿石、钾盐、精炼铅等消费变动对GDP变动的影响),之后效应会逐渐消失。基于此,结合当前实际情况,提出了中国矿业供给侧改革发展战略选择,包括以去产能为抓手、提高资源效率、坚持底线思维、建立政府适当干预下的资源价格形成机制、促进矿业经济创新等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Mining industry is the basic industry of economic and social development. In the current situation of China's economy entering the new normal and the mining industry in the doldrums for a long time, in order to reasonably promote the supply-side reform of the mining industry, it is necessary to clarify the long-term relationship between economic growth, urbanization and mineral resources consumption. It is necessary to answer in turn whether there is a long-term relationship, what the characteristics of these relationships are, what the changing trend of these effects is, whether there are significant differences in different mineral resources, and how to put forward countermeasures for these differences. Based on the judgment of the above problems, this paper selects 9 kinds of mineral resources and makes combination analysis with various methods. The decoupling index is used to depict the decoupling relationship between China's economic growth and mineral resource consumption from 1978 to 2015. It is found that there is a periodic decoupling and rehook process, and the economic growth, urbanization and consumption of any mineral resources are selected as variables. The VAR model is established to reveal the causality among the variables. The significant causality is divided into three types, including cyclic causality chain (the relationship between the three variables has significant replacement cycle change, including coal, zinc, etc. Cause and effect between two variables (one or two distinct bidirectional alternations between two variables, including primary aluminium, zinc, potassium salt, petroleum, refined lead, etc.) Refining nickel, etc.) and unidirectional causality (there is only a significant sequential relationship between two variables, including iron ore, refined copper, refined nickel, etc.). It is found that there are significant differences in the magnitude and frequency of long-term effects of mineral resources consumption, and that most minerals can have a lasting effect of more than 10 years (such as coal, oil, zinc, etc.) The effect of consumption changes such as primary aluminium on GDP change is only significant in 5-6 years (such as iron ore, potassium salt, refined lead and so on), and then the effect will disappear gradually. Based on this, combined with the current situation, this paper puts forward the strategic choice of the supply-side reform and development of China's mining industry, including taking deproductivity as the starting point, improving the resource efficiency, insisting on the bottom line thinking, and establishing the mechanism of resource price formation under appropriate government intervention. Promote mining economic innovation and other policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大学;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【基金】：科技部国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项“中国实现2030年碳排放峰值目标的优化路径研究”项目“技术进步对碳排放的作用规律及参数化”(批准号:2016YFA0602802) 国家自然科学基金重点项目“经济新常态下的国家金属资源安全管理及其政策研究”(批准号:71633006) 中国地质图书馆项目“美国地质调查项目管理机制研究”(批准号:cg12016067A1)
【分类号】：F426.1

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