基于承压-无压水公式的区间涌水量预测
发布时间：2018-07-23 13:12
【摘要】：针对矿井涌水量计算过程中存在不确定性的问题,从区间不确定性角度出发,基于非概率集合理论,推导出了采用经验公式计算影响半径和根据观测资料给出影响半径这两种情况下承压-无压水涌水量区间解析表达式,定量刻画了参数的区间不确定性下涌水量的区间响应,实现了从确定型计算公式到区间不确定性型计算公式的转变。通过对比蒙特卡洛法得到的实际区间上下限和推导出公式计算的上下限,分别给出了两个区间涌水量预测公式计算结果相对误差的绝对值控制在5%和10%以内时,相应变量的允许变化率,分析结果表明:公式一计算最大(最小)涌水量的相对误差为5%和10%时,变量的允许变化率分别为0.18(0.08)和0.28(0.12);公式二计算最大(最小)涌水量的相对误差为5%和10%时,变量的允许变化率分别为0.08(0.05)和0.12(0.08);在相同误差要求下,两个公式计算最大值时的允许变化率高于最小值时的允许变化率,这对计算矿井涌水量的上限有利。这为矿井涌水量计算提供了一条新的途径。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of uncertainty in the calculation of mine discharge, from the angle of interval uncertainty, based on the theory of non-probabilistic set, In this paper, the analytical expression of the interval of pressure-free water inflow under the condition of calculating the influence radius by empirical formula and the influence radius according to the observation data is derived, and the interval response of the water inflow under the interval uncertainty of parameters is quantitatively described. The transformation from deterministic formula to interval uncertainty formula is realized. By comparing the upper and lower limits of the actual interval obtained by the Monte Carlo method and deducing the upper and lower limits of the formula, the absolute values of the relative errors of the calculation results of the two interval water inrush prediction formulas are given respectively when the absolute values are controlled within 5% and 10%, respectively. The results show that the relative error of formula one is 5% and 10% for the maximum (minimum) inflow of water. The allowable variation rates of variables are 0.18 (0.08) and 0.28 (0.12), respectively, and the allowable rates of variation are 0.08 (0.05) and 0.12 (0.08) when the relative error of the maximum (minimum) discharge is 5% and 10%, respectively. The allowable rate of change when the maximum value is calculated by the two formulas is higher than that at the minimum value, which is beneficial to the calculation of the upper limit of mine water discharge. This provides a new way for the calculation of mine discharge.
【作者单位】： 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院;江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41202179) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
【分类号】：P641.4
本文编号：2139519
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of uncertainty in the calculation of mine discharge, from the angle of interval uncertainty, based on the theory of non-probabilistic set, In this paper, the analytical expression of the interval of pressure-free water inflow under the condition of calculating the influence radius by empirical formula and the influence radius according to the observation data is derived, and the interval response of the water inflow under the interval uncertainty of parameters is quantitatively described. The transformation from deterministic formula to interval uncertainty formula is realized. By comparing the upper and lower limits of the actual interval obtained by the Monte Carlo method and deducing the upper and lower limits of the formula, the absolute values of the relative errors of the calculation results of the two interval water inrush prediction formulas are given respectively when the absolute values are controlled within 5% and 10%, respectively. The results show that the relative error of formula one is 5% and 10% for the maximum (minimum) inflow of water. The allowable variation rates of variables are 0.18 (0.08) and 0.28 (0.12), respectively, and the allowable rates of variation are 0.08 (0.05) and 0.12 (0.08) when the relative error of the maximum (minimum) discharge is 5% and 10%, respectively. The allowable rate of change when the maximum value is calculated by the two formulas is higher than that at the minimum value, which is beneficial to the calculation of the upper limit of mine water discharge. This provides a new way for the calculation of mine discharge.
【作者单位】： 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院;江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41202179) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
【分类号】：P641.4
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