燃煤电厂碳捕集与封存技术改造投资的激励措施评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-05 07:35

【摘要】：煤电在我国电力供给中长期占据主导地位,2016年燃煤机组装机容量占比超过57%。燃煤电厂的CO_2排放量一直居高不下,碳捕集与封存技术(CCS)是实现燃煤电厂近零碳排放的重要途径。由于CCS技术尚未成熟,整体仍处于示范阶段,投资面临的不确定性较高,此阶段政府出台正确的激励措施尤为重要。采用实物期权方法并结合三叉树模型对CCS改造投资的激励措施进行探究评价,并提出相应的政策建议。研究结果显示,提高脱碳发电的上网电价能够对CCS改造投资产生较为明显的激励作用。提高碳价或对CCS改造前期成本进行补贴会产生一定的激励效果,但效果不佳。因此,政府可针对CCS脱碳发电制定合理的电价政策以促进CCS技术在燃煤电厂中的应用。
[Abstract]:Coal power has dominated the power supply in China for a long time. In 2016, the installed capacity of coal-fired units accounted for more than 57 percent. The CO_2 emission of coal-fired power plant is always high, and (CCS) is an important way to realize the near-zero carbon emission of coal-fired power plant. Because the CCS technology is not mature, the whole is still in the demonstration stage, and the uncertainty of investment is high, it is particularly important for the government to issue the correct incentive measures at this stage. The real option method and tri-tree model are used to explore and evaluate the incentive measures for the investment of CCS transformation, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The results show that increasing the electricity price of decarbonized power generation can obviously stimulate the investment of CCS transformation. Raising the carbon price or subsidizing the pre-stage cost of CCS retrofit will have some incentive effect, but the effect is not good. Therefore, the government can make a reasonable price policy for CCS decarburized power generation to promote the application of CCS technology in coal-fired power plants.
【作者单位】：中国21世纪议程管理中心;中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院;
【基金】：中国科协“高端科技创新智库青年项目”(DXB-2KQN-2016-046) 国家能源局重点项目(SHJT-14-66)
【分类号】：F426.21;F426.61

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