基于因素空间的煤矿危险源多层递阶模型

发布时间：2018-11-03 11:43

【摘要】：在我国煤矿生产过程中,庞杂多变的煤矿危险源难于辨识、表述和量化处理,使得煤矿生产系统安全评价中主控因素筛选和风险预控管理缺乏客观、有效的依据。目前,利用煤矿生产现场的危险源信息来评估和量化分析其生产系统安全状态的方法甚少。本文以建立煤矿危险源多层递阶模型为基础,对煤矿危险源多层递阶逻辑结构表述、煤矿危险源因素空间构建和煤矿生产子系统安全状态量化分析的方法进行研究。首先依据煤矿危险源辨识相关理论,应用系统工程理论分析煤矿危险源所具有的多层递阶逻辑结构特征,并且基于该逻辑结构特征将具有层级隶属关系的煤矿危险源自上而下划分为顶层、系统层、工序层、主控危险因素层和底层五大递阶层级,建立了煤矿危险源多层递阶模型。其次,依据煤矿危险源信息层级隶属关系与时空易变特征,从煤矿危险源的系统维、因素维和时间维出发,应用霍尔三维结构模式,建立煤矿危险源三维多粒度及分解模型,对煤矿危险源空间结构进行了逻辑表示,便于危险源信息的归类和筛选,进而依据因素空间理论提出了煤矿危险源因素空间的定义和实现机理。最后,基于煤矿危险源因素空间和多层递阶模型建立了煤矿动态系统安全状态评价指标体系模型,通过对工序层指标量化,应用熵权法和灰色关联分析法建立了煤矿危险源多层递阶系统安全评价模型,为煤矿生产子系统安全状态量化分析和风险预控提供有效依据。应用该模型,对南梁矿业掘进系统2014年1月至6月期间开展了危险源辨识与系统安全评价应用研究,取得了良好的效果,该系统的安全状态从前3个月的一般安全提升到后3个月的较安全状态。应用分析表明,危险源多层递阶模型的建立,表达了煤矿危险源系统的逻辑结构,便于系统安全状态量化与系统安全主控因素提取。系统动态评价的应用促进了煤矿风险预控与管理工作持续改进,有助于提高煤炭安全生产管理水平。
[Abstract]:In the process of coal mine production in China, it is difficult to identify, express and quantify the coal mine dangerous sources, which makes the screening of main control factors and risk pre-control management in the safety evaluation of coal mine production system lack of objective and effective basis. At present, there are few methods for evaluating and quantifying the safety state of production system by using the hazard information of coal mine production site. Based on the multi-level hierarchical model of coal mine hazard source, this paper studies the method of describing the multi-level hierarchical logical structure of coal mine hazard source, constructing the space of coal mine risk source factor and quantifying the safety state of coal mine production subsystem. Firstly, according to the theory of coal mine hazard identification, the system engineering theory is applied to analyze the characteristics of multi-level hierarchical logic structure of coal mine hazard source. Based on the logical structure, the coal mine hazard source with hierarchical subordination is divided into top layer, system layer, working procedure layer, main control risk factor layer and bottom five layers, and a multi-level hierarchical model of coal mine hazard source is established. Secondly, according to the hierarchical subordinate relationship of coal mine hazard information and the characteristics of space-time variability, based on the systematic dimension, factor and time dimension of coal mine hazard source, the three-dimensional multi-granularity and decomposition model of coal mine hazard source is established by using Hall three-dimensional structure model. The spatial structure of coal mine hazard source is logically expressed, which is convenient for the classification and screening of risk source information, and the definition and realization mechanism of coal mine hazard source space are put forward according to the theory of factor space. Finally, based on the coal mine hazard factor space and multi-level hierarchical model, the evaluation index system model of coal mine dynamic system safety state is established, and the process layer index is quantified. The multi-level hierarchical system safety evaluation model of coal mine hazard source is established by using entropy weight method and grey relational analysis method, which provides an effective basis for quantitative analysis of safety state and risk pre-control of coal mine production subsystem. By using this model, the hazard source identification and system safety evaluation of Nanliang mining tunneling system were studied from January to June 2014, and good results were obtained. The security state of the system was raised from the general security of the previous 3 months to the safer state of the following 3 months. The application analysis shows that the establishment of multi-level hierarchical model of hazard source expresses the logical structure of coal mine hazard source system, which is convenient for system safety state quantization and system safety main control factor extraction. The application of system dynamic evaluation promotes the continuous improvement of coal mine risk pre-control and management, and helps to improve the level of coal production safety management.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TD771

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