基于环境经济视角的煤炭消费优化分配研究

发布时间：2018-11-04 09:54

【摘要】：作为我国的基础能源,煤炭为我国的经济发展提供了源源不断的动力。但与此同时,大量煤炭消费引发的资源环境问题也日益严重,国际层面的碳减排约束和区域层面的大气污染约束日益趋紧。对此,我国提出了能源消费总量及煤炭消费总量控制政策(下称煤控政策),而煤控政策落地的关键在于煤炭消费的省域量化分配。已有的煤炭消费量化分配研究,多基于面积平均法、空气质量约束法、煤耗预测法等单一视角,难以适应环境经济协调发展的要求。本文创新性地从能源-经济-环境(3E)系统的视角出发,基于碳减排、空气质量改善、经济增长这三大约束条件,研究我国2020年、2030年煤炭消费的总量目标以及省域优化分配方案。主要内容及结论包括:1.全国层面的煤炭消费总量控制目标。主要基于碳减排约束,按照碳排放强度承诺目标,确定煤炭消费总量目标。全国的煤炭消费总量控制目标在2020年定为42亿吨(符合政策规划值,介于空气质量改善约束条件下的36亿吨与经济增长约束条件下的49亿吨之间),2030年定为52亿吨(介于空气质量改善约束条件下的28亿吨与经济增长约束条件下的58亿吨之间)。2.省域煤炭消费的初次分配。按照地均原则(建成区面积占比)、人均原则(常住人口占比)、混合指标原则(加权平均),确定煤炭消费的省域分配。煤炭消费在初次分配时,地均原则对东部地区较有利,人均原则对中部地区较有利。3.环境经济约束条件下的省域煤炭消费分配调整。基于环境空气质量改善目标,研究各省空气质量改善目标-大气污染物减排量-煤炭消费量之间的对应关系,得出空气质量改善约束下的各省煤炭消费量分配状况。基于经济发展目标,分东、中、西部三大地带,得出各省经济增长与煤炭消费量之间的对应关系。在优化调整时,空气质量约束对东部地区约束较严格,经济发展约束对西部地区约束较宽松。4.区域煤炭消费的综合调整。对各种约束条件下的分配比例进行优化调整,配合不同情景分析,得出省域煤炭消费优化分配的相关结果。从2020年到2030年,西部地区煤炭消费占全国的比重将会提高。东、中、西部地区在2020年分到的煤炭消费比例分别为38.59%、30.73%、30.68%;到2030年,该比例变为35.58%、31.06%、33.36%。5.相关政策建议。基于煤炭消费总量控制和省域煤炭消费优化分配,提出能源发展政策及配套环境经济政策。相关政策应注重煤控政策目标的量化分配及考核,同时应注重财税政策补贴和金融政策优惠向西部地区倾斜。
[Abstract]:As the basic energy of our country, coal provides a continuous power for the economic development of our country. But at the same time, the resource and environment problems caused by a large amount of coal consumption are becoming more and more serious, and the carbon abatement constraints at the international level and the air pollution constraints at the regional level are becoming more and more stringent. In view of this, China put forward the policy of total energy consumption and total control of coal consumption (hereinafter referred to as coal control policy), and the key to the fall of coal control policy lies in the quantitative distribution of coal consumption in the province. The existing quantitative distribution of coal consumption is mostly based on the area average method, air quality constraint method, coal consumption prediction method and so on. It is difficult to meet the requirements of the coordinated development of environment and economy. Based on the three constraints of carbon abatement, air quality improvement and economic growth, this paper studies China 2020 from the perspective of energy economy-environment (3e) system. The goal of coal consumption in 2030 and the optimal distribution scheme in provincial area. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: 1. National level coal consumption total control target. Mainly based on carbon emission reduction constraints, according to the carbon emission intensity commitment target, determine the total coal consumption target. The national total coal consumption control target is set at 4.2 billion tons by 2020 (between 3.6 billion tons under air quality improvement constraints and 4.9 billion tons under economic growth constraints in line with policy planning). Set at 5.2 billion tonnes by 2030 (between 2.8 billion tonnes under air quality improvement constraints and 5.8 billion tonnes under economic growth constraints). 2. The primary distribution of coal consumption in the province. The provincial distribution of coal consumption is determined according to the principle of land average (proportion of the area of the built area), the principle of per capita (proportion of permanent resident population) and the principle of mixed index (weighted average). When coal consumption is distributed for the first time, the principle of average land is more favorable to the eastern region, and the principle of per capita is more favorable to the central region. Environmental and economic constraints under the provincial distribution of coal consumption adjustment. Based on the environmental air quality improvement goal, the corresponding relationship between the air quality improvement target and the emission reduction of air pollutants and coal consumption is studied, and the distribution of coal consumption in each province under the air quality improvement constraint is obtained. Based on the goal of economic development, this paper points out the corresponding relationship between economic growth and coal consumption in the three regions of east, middle and west. In the optimization adjustment, the air quality constraint is more strict to the eastern region, and the economic development constraint to the western region is looser. 4. Comprehensive adjustment of regional coal consumption. This paper optimizes and adjusts the distribution ratio under various constraint conditions, and obtains the relevant results of optimizing distribution of coal consumption in provincial area with the help of different scenarios. From 2020 to 2030, the proportion of coal consumption in the western region will increase. The proportion of coal consumption in the east, middle and west areas in 2020 was 38.59%, 30.73% and 30.68%, respectively; by 2030, the proportion had become 35.58%, 31.066% and 33.36%. Relevant policy recommendations. Based on the control of total coal consumption and the optimal distribution of coal consumption in the province, the energy development policy and the supporting environmental economic policy are put forward. Relevant policies should pay attention to the quantitative distribution and assessment of coal control policy objectives, and should also pay attention to fiscal and tax policy subsidies and preferential financial policies to the western region.
【学位授予单位】：中国环境科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21

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