城市交通系统避震应急疏散线路规划方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 21:28

本文关键词：城市交通系统避震应急疏散线路规划方法研究　出处：《福建农林大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市抗震规划是城市综合抗灾救灾规划中的重要分规划之一，其中的避震疏散规划（预案）是城市抗震防灾规划中重要的组成部分之一。我国是世界上地震多发的国家之一，建立科学有效的抗震机制迫在眉睫。在设立了科学有效的避震疏散规划基础上，城市一旦发生突发的具有破坏力的地震灾害时，可以及时地做出反应，抗震防灾指挥可以立即启动科学的避震疏散预案，能够迅速组织城市居民按照避震疏散的预案有秩序的疏散至安全的区域（应急避难场所），避免由于人员无秩序的疏散而引起的交通堵塞以及避难场所调度失衡造成混乱的局面等，进而将地震造成的损失降到最低。由于影响避震疏散规划的因素复杂，其中最重要的是道路抗震可靠性和避难场所布局，目前我国有关城市交通系统应急避震疏散规划的研究大多数仅根据其中某个因素来研究疏散线路的规划，例如目前很多城市仅仅以人口的分布以及避难场所的容量及布局来确定避难场所的服务半径，从而忽略了道路应对避震疏散的承受能力，而有些城市则仅根据对道路的抗震可靠性分析来确定道路的通行概率，从而选择相对安全的疏散路线，而忽略了避难场所对疏散方向的决定作用。本文结合避震疏散分配以及道路抗震可靠性两方面进行城市应急避震疏散规划的研究，即先根据城市人口分布以及避难场所分布和容量提出避震疏散分配的有组织疏散分配模型以及无组织疏散分配模型，，将城市人口合理的分配到相应的避难场所，使得城市人口能够尽可能全部分配到避难场所并且使得总疏散时间最短，然后根据道路抗震通行概率计算得到路段的“当量长度”从而规划最优疏散线路。最后，以福州中心城区（二环内）为例，结合卫星遥感图，利用GIS进行地理信息采集，运用Matlab对避震疏散分配模型以及道路抗震可靠性模型进行计算，运用GIS对规划区域进行空间分析以及数据分析，最后根据分析结果对疏散场所进行合理的规划并生成最优的应急避震疏散线路。
[Abstract]:Urban seismic planning is one of the important sub-plans in urban comprehensive disaster relief planning. The earthquake absorber evacuation plan is one of the most important parts in the urban earthquake prevention planning. China is one of the countries with frequent earthquakes in the world. It is urgent to establish a scientific and effective aseismic mechanism. Based on the establishment of a scientific and effective evacuation plan, cities can respond in time once a sudden and destructive earthquake disaster occurs. Aseismic and disaster prevention command can immediately initiate a scientific earthquake absorber evacuation plan, and can quickly organize urban residents to evacuate to a safe area (emergency shelter) in an orderly manner according to the earthquake absorber evacuation plan. To avoid the traffic jam caused by the disorderly evacuation of personnel and the chaotic situation caused by the imbalance of shelter scheduling, the damage caused by the earthquake will be reduced to the minimum. Because of the complexity of the factors affecting the evacuation planning, the most important factors are the seismic reliability of the road and the layout of the shelter. At present, most of the research on emergency evacuation planning of urban traffic system is based on one of the factors to study the planning of evacuation routes. For example, many cities only use the population distribution and the capacity and layout of the shelter to determine the radius of service of the shelter, thus neglecting the ability of the road to cope with the earthquake absorber evacuation. However, some cities only determine the road traffic probability according to the seismic reliability analysis of the road, thus choosing the relatively safe evacuation route, and neglecting the decision of the evacuation direction by the place of refuge. In this paper, the evacuation planning of urban emergency shock absorber is studied from two aspects: evacuation distribution of shock absorbers and seismic reliability of roads. First, according to the distribution of urban population and the distribution and capacity of shelter, the organized evacuation distribution model and the unorganized evacuation distribution model are put forward to distribute the urban population to the corresponding shelter reasonably. The urban population can be allocated to the shelter as much as possible and the total evacuation time is the shortest. Then the equivalent length of the section is calculated according to the road seismic traffic probability and the optimal evacuation route is planned. Finally, taking Fuzhou central urban area (in the second ring) as an example, combining with satellite remote sensing map, using GIS to collect geographic information. Matlab is used to calculate evacuation distribution model and seismic reliability model, and GIS is applied to spatial analysis and data analysis of the planning area. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the evacuation site is reasonably planned and the optimal emergency shock absorber evacuation line is generated.
【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.116;P315.9

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