我国建筑业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 15:01

本文关键词： 建筑业经济增长协整分析格兰杰因果检验　出处：《河南师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展，建筑业对经济增长的推动作用明显增强，各地区GDP的贡献率在很大程度上依靠建筑业的拉动，在全国各地一片“折旧建新”的形势下研究建筑业与经济增长的关系尤为重要。建筑业的发展为大量农村剩余劳动力的转移提供了广阔的前景，尤其是我国正处于工业化的中期阶段，建筑业不但能促进城市化进程的加快，而且为社会主义新农村建设带来了充足活力。建筑业对我国的影响主要表现在对整个经济社会的就业结构和经济增长的贡献上。本文的研究在把我国分为四大区的基础上（中国四大区指我国大陆四大经济区域，即东部、中部、西部和东北地区），分别考察了建筑业对各地经济增长的贡献。一方面建筑业不但能促进就业，直接带来GDP，而且其发展对区域经济的推动作用也相当明显；另一方面建筑业的发展加快了工业化进程，建筑业对相关的上下游产业，包括相关的研发、咨询服务以及各类新型建材产业的发展，都起到了明显的拉动和辐射作用。尤其表现在对工业化的拉动、辐射作用进一步显现，直接带动了水泥、钢铁、制造、电力、水利等多个经济门类和行业的发展，为实现工业强国发展目标发挥着积极作用。协整分析的结果显示不是所有地区建筑业对经济发展长期影响都是显著的，也并不是所有地区经济的发展都能带动本地建筑业的长期繁荣。从全国范围来看，建筑业的发展并不一定能带来经济的长期增长，对于东部和中部地区存在类似的结论；建筑业对经济增长有比较明显的促进作用，，也就是说，对于中、东部地区来说，经济的发展能在今后相当长的一段时间内带动建筑业的发展，尤其是中部；而对于西部和东北部的情况来说，情况则大有不同，一方面建筑业发展能在相当长的一段时间内给经济增长带来强劲的动力，另一方面经济的发展也能在相当长的时间内促进建筑业的发展，二者存在双向因果关系。尽管从协整分析的角度来看全国部分地区建筑业发展和经济增长之间可能存在类似的关系，但事实上每个地区建筑业对本地经济发展的推动作用存在显著差异。我们还可以得出另一结论：越是发达地区，建筑业对经济增长的推动作用越不明显；越是落后的地区，其经济增长越依赖于建筑业发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the role of construction industry in promoting economic growth has obviously increased. The contribution rate of GDP in various regions depends on the construction industry to a great extent. It is particularly important to study the relationship between construction industry and economic growth under the situation of depreciation and construction. The development of the construction industry provides a broad prospect for the transfer of a large number of rural surplus labor, especially in the middle stage of industrialization in China, which can not only accelerate the process of urbanization, but also accelerate the development of the construction industry. The influence of the construction industry on the employment structure and economic growth of the whole economy and society is mainly reflected in the contribution of the construction industry to the construction of the new socialist countryside. The research in this paper divides our country into four regions. The four major regions of China refer to the four major economic regions of China, That is, the eastern, central, western and northeast regions, respectively, examined the contribution of the construction industry to local economic growth. On the one hand, the construction industry can not only promote employment, directly bring GDP, but also promote the regional economy. On the other hand, the development of the construction industry has accelerated the industrialization process. The construction industry has developed related upstream and downstream industries, including related research and development, consulting services and various new building materials industries. All have played a significant role in pulling and radiating. Especially in the pull of industrialization, the radiation has further appeared, directly driving the development of many economic sectors and industries such as cement, steel, manufacturing, electricity, water conservancy, etc. It is playing a positive role in realizing the development goal of industrial power. The results of cointegration analysis show that not all regional construction industries have a significant long-term impact on economic development, and not all regional economic development can promote the long-term prosperity of local construction industry. From a national perspective, The development of the construction industry does not necessarily lead to long-term economic growth, and there are similar conclusions for the eastern and central regions. The construction industry has a more obvious role in promoting economic growth, that is, for the central and eastern regions, Economic development will lead to the development of the construction industry for quite a long time to come, especially in the central part, while the situation in the western and north-eastern regions will be very different. On the one hand, the development of the construction industry can bring a strong impetus to economic growth in a very long period of time, and on the other hand, the development of the economy can also promote the development of the construction industry in a very long period of time. Although there may be a similar relationship between construction development and economic growth in some parts of the country from the perspective of cointegration analysis, But in fact, there are significant differences in the contribution of the construction industry to local economic development in every region. We can also draw another conclusion: the more developed the region, the less significant the role of the construction industry in promoting economic growth; the more backward the region, the more backward it is. Its economic growth is more dependent on the development of the construction industry.
【学位授予单位】：河南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.92;F124.1

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