工程项目施工方风险的群决策评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 01:55

本文关键词： 工程项目风险评价指标体系群决策　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断发展,建筑行业极大的推动着经济社会的进步,并己成为我国国民经济的支柱产业。建筑行业工程项目施工都伴随着风险,并且由于国家政策的调整和建筑业日益激烈的竞争,使得工程项目逐渐成为热点问题,尤其是项目的风险评价受到了越来越多的关注。从现有研究存在的问题来看,工程项目在风险评价方面缺乏既定的标准,误差较大；在风险问题研究方面,学者较多的是针对某一方面的风险进行研究,没有将项目中出现的各方面问题结合起来评价研究；在风险因素识别方面,项目建设团队由于管理成本问题往往不愿进行识别；再者,学者针对风险评价较多采用定性研究,具有一定的主观随意性,而采用定量研究风险评价的方法往往由于分析方法较为复杂,使其不太具有可操作性。如何有效的对工程项目的风险进行规避,促进建筑业的健康发展是一个迫在眉睫的问题。本文以工程项目施工方为研究对象,探讨了项目施工方整体风险的群决策评价方法。本文简述了有关项目施工风险、风险评价及群决策评价的基本理论;构建了施工方风险评价指标体系,运用群决策理论,建立了工程项目施工方的风险综合评价数学模型；用实例演示了模型的汁算方法与评价过程,论证了方法的有效性,理论与实践相互映证。研究成果为业主对施工方的整体风险提供了一种科学有效的评价方法。本文由六大部分组成。首先,主要介绍了本文的研究背景、目的以及意义,从工程项目风险,工程项目风险评价以及群决策三个方面进行相关理论的研究现状概述,总结出现有研究存在的问题,提出本文的研究思路与方法。接着,对相关理论概述。然后,结合工程项目风险的识别以及指标体系构建的原则对工：程项目施工方风险评价指标体系的构建,根据实际情况对工程项目施工方风险的各类因素进行分析,识别风险的影响因素,从而构建风险评价的体系。进而,工程项目施工方风险评价方法及模型构建,首先用因子分析对指标进行选取,进而构建工程项目施工方风险评价的群决策模型。最后,实证研究。通过选取的实例对项目施工方风险评价群决策方法进行验证,并对最后的实证结果进行充分阐述,从而确定方法的可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of our economy, the construction industry has greatly promoted the economic and social progress, and has become the pillar industry of our national economy. And because of the adjustment of national policy and the increasingly fierce competition of the construction industry, the engineering project has gradually become a hot issue, especially the risk evaluation of the project has been paid more and more attention. The project lacks the established standard in the risk evaluation, the error is big; in the risk research aspect, the scholar mostly carries on the research aimed at a certain aspect of risk, does not combine each aspect question which appears in the project to evaluate the research; In the aspect of risk factor identification, the project construction team is often unwilling to identify the risk factors because of the problem of management cost. Moreover, the scholars mostly adopt qualitative research in view of risk evaluation, which has a certain subjective arbitrariness. However, the method of quantitative research risk assessment is often difficult to operate because of the complexity of the analytical method. How to effectively avoid the risks of engineering projects and promote the healthy development of the construction industry is an urgent problem. Taking the construction side of engineering project as the research object, this paper discusses the method of group decision evaluation of the whole risk of project construction, and briefly introduces the basic theory of project construction risk, risk evaluation and group decision evaluation. The risk evaluation index system of construction side is constructed, and the mathematical model of comprehensive risk evaluation of engineering project is established by using the theory of group decision, and the calculation method and evaluation process of the model are demonstrated with an example, and the validity of the method is demonstrated. The research results provide a scientific and effective evaluation method for the owner's overall risk to the construction side. This paper is composed of six parts. Firstly, it introduces the research background, purpose and significance of this paper, and summarizes the research status quo of the related theories from three aspects of engineering project risk, engineering project risk evaluation and group decision making. Summarize the problems existing in the research, put forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. Then, summarize the relevant theories. Then, Combined with the identification of engineering project risk and the construction principle of index system, this paper analyzes the various factors of engineering project construction side risk according to the actual situation of the construction party risk evaluation index system of Cheng project. The risk assessment system is constructed by identifying the influencing factors of the risk. Then, the risk assessment method and model construction of the construction side of the engineering project is constructed. Firstly, the index is selected by factor analysis. Finally, the empirical research. Through the selected examples to verify the project construction side risk evaluation group decision-making method, and the final empirical results are fully elaborated. Thus, the maneuverability of the method is determined.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71

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