基于未知网络计划的天骄嘉园8#楼项目的进度风险研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 06:09

本文关键词： 建筑工程未确知理论不确定性网络计划进度风险　出处：《河北工程大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前，建筑业已经成为我国国民经济的支柱产业之一，，在当今国民经济中起着至关重要的作用。而现代工程有着规模大、周期长、投资额度大、一次性等特点，施工管理就更是尤为重要，其中工程的进度控制对工程建设也有着深远的影响。网络计划技术作为一种现代管理科学总结出的计划管理方法，历经半个世纪的发展，已经形成了一套较为完整的进度管理模式，是对项目进度进行管理的一种有效工具。在漫长的建设周期中，施工环境和工序的复杂多变无疑会对工程建设产生影响，而这些不确定性的因素无疑加大了对工程施工管理的难度。本文在掌握了工程项目管理理论和网络计划技术的基础上，结合工程项目的实际情况，建立的不确定性指标体系主要包括了人、物、环境和其他因素4个一级评价指标，二级评价指标20个，并且对各种潜在的不确定性影响因素进行分析和归纳。然后利用了未确知测度理论结合专家经验对影响施工进度的不确定性评价指标体系进行计算，并且得出各个不确定性指标因素对施工工序的持续时间的影响程度，从而判断各项指标对工程项目施工的总工期产生的潜在影响。最后，本文将对各项不确定性影响因素产生的进度风险提出具体的控制措施，从而保障工程如期完工。本文将未确知理论应用与具体的工程项目中，具有更强的操作性和实践性，贴近于现代建筑工程，具有一定的价值。
[Abstract]:At present, the construction industry has become one of the pillar industries of our national economy and plays a vital role in the present national economy. However, modern projects have the characteristics of large scale, long period, large investment quota, one-time and so on. Construction management is particularly important, among which the progress control of the project has a profound impact on the project construction. As a modern management science summed up the planning management method, the network planning technology has been developed for half a century. A complete schedule management model has been formed, which is an effective tool for project schedule management. In the long construction cycle, the complexity of the construction environment and working procedures will undoubtedly have an impact on the construction of the project. These uncertain factors undoubtedly increase the difficulty of engineering construction management. On the basis of mastering engineering project management theory and network planning technology, this paper combines the actual situation of engineering project. The uncertainty index system is mainly composed of four first-grade evaluation indexes of people, objects, environment and other factors, and 20 second-level evaluation indexes. Then the unascertained measure theory combined with expert experience is used to calculate the uncertainty evaluation index system which affects the construction schedule. And the degree of influence of various uncertain index factors on the duration of construction process is obtained, and the potential impact of each index on the total construction period of the project is judged. Finally, In this paper, concrete control measures are put forward to ensure the completion of the project on time. In this paper, the application of unascertained theory and concrete engineering projects has more maneuverability and practicability, which is close to modern architectural engineering and has certain value.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU722

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