集对分析法在工程造价风险评估中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 15:56

本文选题：工程造价 + 风险管理　；参考：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：工程项目由于在实施过程受到了内外部各种不确定性因素的影响,具有很大的风险性。工程造价“三超”现象不断,很大部分原因是造价管理者缺乏工程造价风险管理意识,对建设项目实施过程中造价风险估计不够。本文在系统分析和全面总结国内外工程造价管理学者在工程造价风险管理研究成果的基础上,立足于建设单位的角度,结合风险管理基本管理理论和工程造价管理实例,从理论和实践两个方面,对工程项目全过程的工程造价风险进行了研究。首先,通过总结常用风险识别的方法,选择运用WBS-RBS法和专家调查法相结合的风险识别法对建设项目各阶段的造价风险进行了全面、系统的识别,建立了工程造价风险评价指标体系,并对各风险因素进行了详细分析。其次,探讨了集对分析方法在工程造价风险评价与决策方法。运用GSPA法对层次分析法进行了改进,提出了新的改进层次分析法—GSPA-IAHP主观赋权法；通过引入一种基于线性变化的单指标IDO联系度确定方法,建立了基于集对分析的工程造价风险评估模型。同时,提出了工程造价风险评价标准。然后,针对工程建设各阶段的造价风险,提出了风险处理策略和具体的风险防范措施。最后,以长沙市某别墅项目为例,对全过程工程造价风险进行评价。运用GSPA-IAHP主观赋权法进行了工程造价风险排序,运用集对分析工程造价风险评估模型对各阶段风险因素进行了综合评价,并进行了风险预警监控计算示例。从计算过程可以看出,该方法计算过程清晰、简单,具有广泛的应用前景,这对类似工程造价风险管理提供了理论和实践的参考依据。
[Abstract]:The project has been affected by various uncertainties in the internal and external factors in the implementation process, which has great risk. The "three super" phenomenon of the project cost is constant. Most of the reasons are that the cost managers lack the risk management awareness of the project cost, and the cost risk of the construction project is not estimated enough. On the basis of the research results of engineering cost risk management at home and abroad, based on the construction unit, combined with the basic management theory of risk management and the example of engineering cost management, this paper studies the project cost risk of the whole project from two aspects of theory and practice.
First, by summarizing the commonly used risk identification methods, the risk identification method, which combines the WBS-RBS method and the expert investigation method, is selected to make a comprehensive and systematic identification of the cost risk of each stage of the construction project. The evaluation index system of the project cost risk is established, and the risk factors are analyzed in detail.
Secondly, the evaluation and decision method of the set pair analysis method in engineering cost risk are discussed. The GSPA method is used to improve the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and a new improved analytic hierarchy process (GSPA-IAHP) subjective weighting method is proposed. By introducing a single index IDO connection degree method based on linear change, a set pair analysis is established. Cost risk assessment model. At the same time, the risk assessment standard of project cost is proposed.
Then, aiming at the cost risk in every stage of engineering construction, risk treatment strategies and specific risk prevention measures are put forward.
Finally, taking a villa project in Changsha as an example, the project cost risk of the whole process is evaluated. The risk ranking of the project cost is carried out by using the GSPA-IAHP subjective empowerment method. The risk factors of each stage are evaluated comprehensively by using the set pair analysis of the project cost risk assessment model, and the calculation example of the risk early warning and monitoring is carried out. It can be seen that the calculation process of this method is clear and simple and has a wide application prospect, which provides a theoretical and practical reference for the risk management of similar project cost.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723.3

【参考文献】