威海乐天玛特商业地产项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 03:18

本文选题：商业地产项目 + 投资风险管理　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国商业地产对进一步促进国内消费、扩大国内需求、拉动固定资产投资、改善居民生活条件以及塑造文明的城镇面貌、带动建筑建材等相关前后一体化产业的快速发展,发挥了非常重要的作用。近年来,房地产开发企业特别是转型专注于商业地产开发的投资者越来越重视项目投资风险问题,然而,商业地产开发项目投资风险管理实践中存在诸多需要迫切解决的问题：诸如投资者风险意识差、缺乏项目投资风险管理机制、运营风险较大、缺乏全面的市场调查分析等等。从理论上来看,国内学术界关于商业地产项目风险管理的理论研究还存在不足之处,具体表现在：缺少投资风险的机理分析、风险评估指标体系构建缺乏实证研究、风险应对措施缺乏针对性。因此,深入研究商业地产开发项目投资风险管理问题,具有重要的实践意义和理论价值。本文以威海市乐天玛特商业地产项目为研究对象,通过相关文献资料收集有关项目决策阶段、项目实施阶段和项目运营阶段的各种风险因素,设计了初始问卷调查表,经过小范围施测,最后确定了正式调查问卷。对国内5家上市公司分布在全国各地的商业地产项目作为调研样本,运用因子分析法确定了各个阶段的有关风险因素归为4个因子,最终构建了威海乐天玛特商业地产项目投资风险指标体系,该指标体系包括4个一级指标,分别是：决策风险、市场风险、技术风险、管理风险,其中决策风险包括4个二级指标,市场风险包括3个二级指标,技术风险包括4个二级指标,管理风险包括7个二级指标。然后对威海市乐天玛特商业地产项目投资风险进行评估,一是各种风险发生概率分析；另一方面是各种风险损失量相对严重程度展开分析。对于前者,采用德菲尔法经过三轮分析,确定了比较一致的投资风险指标相应的风险发生概率；对于后者,采用层次分析法给出了各种风险损失量相对严重程度的权重,最后,综合考量两方面的结果,确定各种风险等级,给出了5种关键风险因素,分别是可行性研究风险、合同风险、消费者购买力水平风险、价格风险、沟通协调风险。最后,运用因果分析图法明确了上述5种关键风险因素产生的细化原因,如可行性研究风险细化原因是存在操作性风险,合同风险细化原因是承包人自身的风险和合同条款存在风险,消费者购买力水平风险细化原因是品牌风险,价格风险细化原因是价格条款的风险,沟通协调风险细化原因是利益主体意见分歧,然后针对这些原因提出了具体的具有针对性的防范措施。本文的主要结论如下：(1)编制了威海市乐天玛特商业地产项目投资风险正式调查问卷表。该问卷表由18个题项组成。(2)构建了威海市乐天玛特商业地产项目投资风险指标体系。一级指标包括决策风险、市场风险、技术风险、管理风险；二级指标包括18种风险。(3)采用德菲尔法和层次分析法确定了威海市乐天玛特商业地产项目投资风险的5种关键风险因素,分别是消费者购买力水平、合同风险、可行性研究风险、沟通协调风险和价格风险。(4)运用因果分析图法查找了5种关键风险因素相应的具体产生原因,然后给出了相应的风险防范措施。
[Abstract]:China's commercial real estate has played a very important role in further promoting domestic consumption, expanding domestic demand, stimulating investment in fixed assets, improving the living conditions of residents and shaping the appearance of civilized cities and towns, and promoting the rapid development of the related and integrated industries, such as building materials, and so on. In recent years, the real estate development enterprises, especially the transformation of the enterprises, have focused on the transformation. The investors of commercial real estate development pay more and more attention to the risk of project investment. However, there are many urgent problems to be solved in the practice of investment risk management in commercial real estate development projects, such as poor investor risk awareness, lack of project investment risk management mechanism, large operation risk, lack of comprehensive market investigation and analysis, and so on. From the theoretical point of view, the theoretical research on the risk management of commercial real estate projects still exists in the domestic academic circles, which is manifested in the analysis of the lack of investment risk mechanism, the lack of empirical research on the construction of risk assessment index system and the lack of pertinence of the risk response measures. The management problem has important practical significance and theoretical value. In this paper, taking the commercial real estate project of Weihai's Lotte Matt as the research object, this paper designs the initial questionnaire survey form through the relevant literature data, and designs the initial questionnaire. We set up a formal questionnaire. As a survey sample of the commercial real estate projects of 5 listed companies in China, we use factor analysis to determine the risk factors of each stage as 4 factors. Finally, the investment risk index system of the Weihai Lotte Matt commercial real estate project is constructed. The index system includes 4 first levels. Indicators are: decision risk, market risk, technical risk, management risk, among which decision risk includes 4 two level indicators, market risk includes 3 two level indicators, technical risk includes 4 two level indicators, management risk includes 7 two level indicators. Then, the investment risk of Weihai lotian Matt commercial real estate project is evaluated, one is each On the other hand, the relative severity of risk loss is analyzed. For the former, a three round analysis is adopted by the Delphi method to determine the corresponding risk occurrence probability of a relatively consistent investment risk index; for the latter, a relative serious course of risk loss is given by the analytic hierarchy process. The weight of the degree, finally, the comprehensive consideration of the results of two aspects, determine a variety of risk levels, and give 5 key risk factors, respectively, the feasibility study risk, contract risk, consumer purchasing power level risk, price risk, communication and coordination risk. Finally, the use of causality analysis diagram method to clarify the refinement of the 5 key risk factors. For example, the reason for the feasibility study is the existence of operational risk. The reasons for the refinement of the risk are the risk of the contractor itself and the risk of the contract terms. The reason for the refinement of the consumer purchasing power level is the brand risk, the reason for the price risk refinement is the risk of the price terms, and the reasons for the refinement of the communication and coordination risk are the stakeholders. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) a formal questionnaire on the investment risk of the commercial real estate project in Weihai was compiled. The questionnaire was composed of 18 items. (2) the investment risk of the commercial real estate project in Weihai was constructed. The first level index includes decision risk, market risk, technical risk and management risk; two level index includes 18 kinds of risk. (3) 5 key risk factors are determined by Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which are the level of consumer purchasing power, contract risk and feasibility study. Study the risk, communicate and coordinate the risk and the price risk. (4) use the causality analysis map to find out the specific causes of the 5 key risk factors, and then give the corresponding risk prevention measures.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;TU71

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