我国天然气战略储备安全预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 09:22

本文关键词：我国天然气战略储备安全预警模型研究　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：天然气战略储备是指国家为了应付供应危机等意外情况,为了保障国家的天然气供应安全,而在平时有计划的建立的一定数量天然气的库存。我国自2006年后开始进口天然气。随着天然气进口量的逐年增加,我国对天然气进口的依存度也在飙升。天然气表观消费量的进口依存度由2012年的29%增至2014年的33%。于是我国天然气战略储备的建设刻不容缓。虽然已经有部分学者对天然气的战略储备做出了一定的研究,但是对于天然气战略储备的安全预警的研究领域还尚存空白。本文将建立我国天然气战略储备安全预警模型,从客观的角度为保证我国天然气供应安全提出一种新的方法。笔者利用主成分分析法和K均值聚类法确定我国天然气战略储备预警的安全界限；然后以我国天然气战略储备带来的社会收益最高和战略储备总成本最小为目标,以供求限制为约束建立了天然气战略储备安全储备规模多目标规划模型,并求解出最优储备规模；最后对结果进行了科学的分析并对模型内参数进行了灵敏度分析,使在模型应用与安全预控规模决定的时候可以利用宏观调控参数以调整决策。可以为以后的天然气战略储备安全预警系统的建设提供可以参考的思路。
[Abstract]:The natural gas reserve strategy refers to the countries in order to cope with the supply crisis and other unforeseen circumstances, in order to guarantee the safe supply of natural gas and natural gas in the country, a certain number of peacetime planned established inventory. China began to import natural gas since 2006. With the natural gas imports increased year by year, China's imports of natural gas dependence is soaring. Natural gas import consumption dependence increased from 29% in 2012 to 33%. in 2014 and the construction of China's natural gas reserves strategic imperative. Although there have been some scholars on the strategic reserves of natural gas has made certain research, but the research in the field of safety early warning for natural gas reserve strategy the remaining blank. This paper will establish a strategic reserve of China's natural gas safety early warning model, from an objective point of view to ensure that we put forward a new method of China's natural gas supply security. Author Analysis to determine the safety limit early warning strategic reserves of natural gas in China and K means clustering by using the method of principal component; minimum social benefits and then brought to the highest strategic reserves of natural gas reserves in China strategic total cost as the goal, to supply and demand as restriction of the natural gas reserve safety reserve scale multi-objective programming model, and for the optimal reserve scale; finally the results are analyzed and the model parameters are analysed, which can use macro parameters when model application and safety control decision to adjust the scale decision. To provide reference ideas for the construction of natural gas reserves can be strategic security early warning system for the future.

【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22

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