低渗透油藏油井递减后产量递减不确定性评价方法

发布时间：2018-01-08 10:39

本文关键词：低渗透油藏油井递减后产量递减不确定性评价方法　出处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对低渗透油藏产量递减评估问题,建立了产量递减的不确定性分析方法,并明确了参数不确定性对累计产量的影响。通过分析某低渗透油藏的生产数据,确定了油藏初始产量、递减指数、递减率所满足的概率分布函数,考虑油藏非均质性的影响,利用蒙特卡洛方法,预测了油井产量的变化,并开展主控因素的不确定性分析。结果表明:不确定性递减分析方法预测了不同概率下的产量递减情况,依次得到油井有10%、50%、90%可能达到的评估结果,相较于传统方法,更准确地反映了油藏的生产变化;递减指数和递减率的不确定范围对累计产量的预测精度影响很大,而对初始产量的影响较小。新建立的产量递减不确定性预测方法能够提高低渗透油藏产量评估的可靠性,为优化低渗油藏开发效果提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:For the production of the low permeability reservoir decline assessment, established production decline uncertainty analysis method and the influence of parameter uncertainty on the cumulative yield. Through the analysis of production data of a low permeability reservoir, the reservoir initial yield decline index, decreasing the probability distribution function of the rate, considering the influence of reservoir heterogeneity the use of Monte Carlo method to predict change of oil production, and carry out the analysis of the main control factors of uncertainty. The results show that the uncertainty analysis method to predict the decline decline of yield under different probability, obtained the wells 10%, 50%, 90% may reach the assessment results, compared with the traditional method, more accurately. Reflects the change of reservoir production; uncertainty of total prediction accuracy of yield decline index and decline rate, but had little effect on the initial yield of new. The uncertainty prediction method of production decline in production can improve the reliability of low permeability reservoir production evaluation, and provide reference for optimizing low permeability reservoir development effect.

【作者单位】：中国石油大学石油工程教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“页岩储层纳孔微缝耦合系统全息表征方法研究”(41672132)
【分类号】：TE328
【正文快照】： 中国的低渗透油气藏资源丰富,在鄂尔多斯盆地、松辽盆地、柴达木盆地等盆地内都有广泛分布[1-5],低渗透油藏储量占中国已探明储量的50%以上。低渗透油藏具有低孔低渗、天然产能不足的特点,为提高油藏的开发效果,多采用人工注水补充能量。但油井依然很快进入递减阶段[6],开展递

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