大庆—哈尔滨新建输油管道风险评价

发布时间：2018-01-09 01:15

本文关键词：大庆—哈尔滨新建输油管道风险评价　出处：《东北石油大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：管道运输因其经济、安全、高效的特点,已成为油气运输的主要方式。在大力发展管道运输的同时,多发的管道事故所造成的人员伤亡、环境污染以及财产损失也警示人们管道安全的重要性。于是管道的完整性管理技术应运而生,而管道风险评价作为完整性管理的一项重要基础工作,对于确保管道经济安全地运行有着十分重要的意义。庆哈输油管道担负将原油输送到哈尔滨炼油厂的任务,管道一旦发生事故停输,会给生产生活带来很多影响。由于旧管线存在一系列安全隐患,新建管线投产后已将旧管线停用。新线目前存在占压以及穿跨越敏感地区等情况,给管道失效带来风险。为了开展新建管线的完整性管理工作,全面普查管道的风险情况,提高管线运营管理的安全性,进一步明确管道线路管理的重点,需对新建管线进行风险评价。本文在对国内外管道风险评估理论及评价技术的研究基础上,结合庆哈输油管道新建管线的实际特点,对其开展了风险评价工作,深入分析了影响管道失效的风险因素。主要包括以下几方面:(1)运用RBI方法对庆哈输油管道新建管线进行评价,在对管线进行充分的实地调研以及数据资料整理的基础上,对四种不同泄放孔径可能导致的失效进行可燃后果分析和可能性分析,计算出后果等级和可能性等级,并给出风险矩阵,得出风险主要为中孔和大孔泄放事故。(2)运用RiskScore方法对庆哈输油管道新建管线开展全线的风险评估,针对腐蚀、误操作、第三方损坏、制造与施工缺陷、地质灾害等五个风险因素指标,对各管段进行风险识别,通过计算失效可能性和失效后果得出风险分值,依据分值大小筛选出12段风险管段,并列出风险矩阵,最后提出相应的风险减缓措施。(3)建立庆哈输油管道的第三方损坏故障树模型,利用专家判断打分法和模糊集合理论的综合方法确定故障树基本事件的概率,对故障树进行定性分析和定量计算,从而识别出在管道系统自身存在缺陷时,严重的占压以及管道上方频繁的活动情况更容易引起管道的失效,并给出相应的防治对策。
[Abstract]:Pipeline transportation because of its economy, safety, high efficiency, has become the main means of transportation of oil and gas. With the development of pipeline transportation and multiple pipeline accidents caused casualties and property losses, the importance of environmental pollution also warn people the safety of the pipeline integrity management technology came into being. So the pipeline, and the pipeline risk assessment as an important basic work of integrity management, to ensure the safe operation of the pipeline economy has a very important significance. The pipeline will take Qingha oil to the refinery in Harbin, pipeline accident shutdown, will bring a lot of influence to life and production. Because there are a series of old pipeline safety after the operation has problems, the new pipeline will disable the existing line. The old pipeline crossing situation and tying up sensitive areas, bring risks to pipeline failure to carry out. The new pipeline integrity management, risk comprehensive survey of the pipeline, improve the safety of pipeline operation and management, to further clarify the focus of pipeline management, need to evaluate the risk of new pipelines. This paper based on the domestic and foreign research in the pipeline risk assessment theory and evaluation technology, combined with the actual characteristics of Qingha oil pipeline the new pipeline, to carry out the risk assessment work, in-depth analysis of the risk factors that affect the pipeline failure. Mainly includes the following aspects: (1) using the RBI method to evaluate the Qingha oil pipeline of new pipelines, in the full investigation and data based on the pipeline, on four different the discharge aperture may failure consequence analysis and the possibility of combustible analysis result, calculate the consequences and the possibility of grade level, and gives the risk matrix, that risk is mainly in And large pore discharged through the accident. (2) risk assessment, using RiskScore method of Qingha oil pipeline to carry out the full range of new pipelines for corrosion, misoperation, third party damage, manufacturing and construction defects, geological disasters such as the five risk factors, the risk identification section, by calculating the failure probability and the consequences of failure risk score, based on the value of risk screening of 12 pipe sections, and lists the risk matrix, and finally put forward the corresponding risk mitigation measures. (3) the establishment of Qingha oil pipeline third party damage fault tree model, using expert scoring method and fuzzy set theory to determine the comprehensive method to determine the probability of basic events in fault tree the qualitative and quantitative analysis of fault tree, which identified in the pipeline system has its own defects, serious and frequent activities tying up above the line is more likely to cause the pipeline Failure and corresponding prevention and control measures are given.

【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

【共引文献】