基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的川气东送管道风险分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 06:09

本文关键词：基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的川气东送管道风险分析　出处：《油气储运》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了视情排查川气东送管道关键危险源,保障天然气安全平稳输送,对川气东送管道的事故风险开展评估。提出了一种基于故障树与贝叶斯网络相结合的管道事故风险分析方法:将故障树分析清晰的因果建模能力和贝叶斯网络强大的动态更新能力相结合,根据川气东送管道的设计、运行及维护实际情况,建立了川气东送管道事故致因模型;将模型映射至贝叶斯网络,分析得出川气东送管道事故风险为1×10~(-3)等级,其中腐蚀是川气东送管道事故的第一风险因素;通过概率更新分析,得出了5条关键失效致因链。关键风险因素和失效致因链的得出对管道运行现场的危险源排查和风险预防具有指导意义,但仍不够精确,需进一步统计分析基本失效事件的概率数据,以得出更加准确的风险评估结果。
[Abstract]:In order to investigate the key danger sources of the east Sichuan gas transmission pipeline according to the situation, ensure the safe and stable transportation of natural gas. An accident risk analysis method based on fault tree and Bayesian network is proposed. Combining the causality modeling ability of fault tree analysis with the powerful dynamic updating ability of Bayesian network. According to the actual conditions of the design, operation and maintenance of the gas transmission pipeline from Sichuan to the east, the accident cause model of the pipeline is established. The model is mapped to Bayesian network, and the risk of eastward pipeline accident is 1 脳 10 ~ (-3), in which corrosion is the first risk factor. Through probabilistic renewal analysis, five key failure cause chains are obtained. The key risk factors and failure cause chains are of guiding significance for pipeline operation site risk source investigation and risk prevention, but they are still not accurate enough. Further statistical analysis of probability data of basic failure events is needed to obtain more accurate risk assessment results.
【作者单位】：中石化川气东送天然气管道有限公司;中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目“油气储运设备链瞬态过程的耦变规律及其故障的自组织诊断方法”,51005247
【分类号】：TE88
【正文快照】： QUAN Kai1,LIANG Wei2,ZHANG Laibin2,YU Xuchao2,LI Yuan11.Sinopec Sichuan to Eastern China Transsmission Gas Pipeline Co.Ltd.;2.College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing)川气东送管道途经地区较广,地形复杂,易

【相似文献】