基于指数法的海底管道风险评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 17:36

本文关键词：基于指数法的海底管道风险评估方法研究　出处：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海底管道风险评估技术是海底管道完整性管理技术的重要组成部分,随着海底管道完整性管理技术的发展和完整性管理水平的提高,管道运营者对海底管道风险评估技术的要求也在日益提高。但是由于海底管道所处环境的复杂性和所面临威胁的多样性,使得该技术的研究及发展相对缓慢。目前,国内、外学者对陆地管道的风险评估技术研究较多,也取得了较好成果,并在逐步应用和实践中,如指数法,但是对海底管道的风险评估技术尚未形成有效且简单实用的方法。本文研究了业界公认成熟的陆地管道指数法风险评估模型的原理,并分析了海底管道和陆地管道所面临风险的类型以及风险后果的不同之处,总结了影响海底管道的六类风险指数,并重新定义了海底管道的后果影响因素,建立了海底管道的指数法风险评估技术模型。在研究过程中充分了解了国际上PARLOC数据库记录的北海海底油气输送管道的事故事件,包括事故的类型、事故的原因、事故发生的位置等,根据该数据库的记录分析了海底管道的主要风险因素及其在整个管道事故中所占的权重,为本文海底管道指数法风险评估模型的建立奠定了基础。对于评分规则的制定充分分析了陆地管道指数法风险评估模型的计算原理和评分规则,同时将陆地管道面临的风险类型与海底管道的风险类型进行了研究和对比,最终设计出海底管道的指数法风险评估模型。在海底管道风险模型设计时,除了对风险可能性因素进行了详细的研究和确定外,更重要的是考虑到海底管道失效后果与陆地管道失效后果的极大不同,独创性的确定了海底管道失效后果影响因素及评分规则,突出了海域的重要程度对后果评估的影响。针对南海某油田一海底管道,运用本文建立的指数法风险评估模型进行了案例应用,得出了每个管段的具体风险值,并分析了影响管段安全的主要风险因素,与管理者掌握的风险情况基本相符,为其后续的完整性管理指明的方向。
[Abstract]:Risk assessment technology for submarine pipeline is an important part of submarine pipeline integrity management technology, with the development of submarine pipeline integrity management and integrity management level, pipeline operators for pipeline risk assessment technology requirements are also increasing. But due to the complex environment of submarine pipeline and facing diversity the threat, which makes the research and development of this technology is relatively slow. At present, many domestic and foreign scholars on the research of risk assessment technology for land pipelines, also achieved good results, and gradually applied and practice, such as the index, but the risk assessment technology for pipeline has not yet formed a simple and practical method this paper studies the land pipeline. The principle of index of risk assessment model is recognized as the mature, and the analysis of the submarine pipeline and land pipeline risk faced by type The difference and risk consequences, summarizes six kinds of risk index influence of the submarine pipeline, and redefines the impact influencing factors of the submarine pipeline, established the index of risk assessment technology of submarine pipeline model. In the course of the study to fully understand the incident Beihai international seabed oil and gas pipeline in the PARLOC database. Including the type of accident, the cause of the accident, the accident location, according to the database records and analyzes the main risk factors of submarine pipeline and its weight in the whole pipeline accident, which laid a foundation for building up the sea bottom pipeline index of risk assessment model. The calculation principle and scoring rules of the land pipeline index method the risk assessment model for making full analysis of scoring rules, while the risk type and risk type of submarine pipeline pipeline land facing was studied. Research and comparison, index of risk assessment model of submarine pipeline is designed. In the design of submarine pipeline risk model, in addition to the possible risk factors were investigated in detail and determine, more important is greatly different fruit taking into account the consequences of failure of submarine pipeline and land pipeline failure, determine the originality of the sea the pipeline failure factors and consequences affect the scoring rules, highlights the importance of the consequence assessment. The waters for a submarine pipeline in Nanhai oilfield, using the index of risk assessment model based on the case study, the specific risk of each pipe section, and analyzes the main influence factors of the safety risk management section and, risk managers to grasp the basic line, as specified in the subsequent integrity management direction.

【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973.92

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