天然气管道运行风险评价方法及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 02:26

本文关键词：天然气管道运行风险评价方法及其应用研究　出处：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,能源的消耗逐渐增加,对环境造成了严重破坏,同时带来了不良的社会影响。为实现经济与环境的可持续发展,作为环保型能源天然气的需求不断扩大,天然气管道运输行业已成为国民经济中的一项重要产业。然而,随着天然气管道数量的增加,以及管道"老龄化"时代的到来,天然气管道事故也随之而来,给人民生命和财产带来了巨大的威胁,同时天然气管道泄漏穿孔等问题也给天然气运行管理企业带来了巨大的经济损失和不良的社会影响。因此,天然气管道的运行安全问题已成为风险评价工作中亟待解决的一项重要问题。通过对当前应用较为广泛的风险评价方法进行对比研究,最终确定采用定性与定量相结合的风险评价方法,对天然气管道的运行风险进行评价研究。基于事故致因理论和事故统计数据,利用鱼刺图分析法对天然气管道运行风险进行定性分析,建立天然气管道运行事故可能性鱼刺图和天然气管道事故后果严重度鱼刺图。利用鱼刺图找出导致天然气管道事故的影响因素,建立天然气管道事故可能性指标体系和天然气管道事故后果严重度指标体系。利用模糊综合评价法对天然气管道运行风险进行定量研究,采用专家调查表法,确定各影响因素的权重,对各影响因素进行模糊综合评价,利用加权平均法计算风险值,并根据风险值的大小进行风险程度的划分。对N市天然气管道的运行情况进行风险评价应用研究,对各管道段的风险值进行分别计算,并根据风险值的大小提出相应的维护预防措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, the consumption of energy is increasing gradually, which has caused serious damage to the environment and brought bad social impact to realize the sustainable development of economy and environment. Natural gas pipeline transportation industry has become an important industry in the national economy. However, with the increase of the number of natural gas pipelines, the natural gas pipeline transportation industry has become an important industry. As well as the arrival of pipeline "aging" era, natural gas pipeline accidents have also followed, to people's lives and property has brought a huge threat. At the same time, the leakage and perforation of natural gas pipeline has brought huge economic loss and bad social impact to the natural gas operation and management enterprises. The safety of natural gas pipeline operation has become an important problem to be solved in the risk assessment work. This paper makes a comparative study on the risk assessment methods which are widely used at present. Finally, the risk assessment method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis is adopted to evaluate the operational risk of natural gas pipeline, based on accident cause theory and accident statistics data. The operation risk of natural gas pipeline is analyzed qualitatively by fish-prick-graph analysis. The possibility of natural gas pipeline accidents and the severity of natural gas pipeline accidents are drawn. The influencing factors of natural gas pipeline accidents are found out by using fish spurs. The possibility index system of natural gas pipeline accident and the severity index system of natural gas pipeline accident consequence are established. The risk of natural gas pipeline operation is studied quantitatively by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the expert questionnaire method is adopted. The weight of each influencing factor is determined, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of each influencing factor is carried out, and the risk value is calculated by the weighted average method. According to the size of risk value, the risk degree is divided. The risk evaluation of N city natural gas pipeline is studied, and the risk value of each pipeline section is calculated separately. And according to the risk value of the corresponding maintenance and prevention measures.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE88

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