现阶段我国石油消费对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 16:40

本文关键词： 石油消费经济增长误差修正模型 Granger因果　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石油素有“工业血液”的美誉,在各国的国民经济体系中占据着异常重要的地位。随着我国经济的高效、稳健、可持续发展,我国对石油消费的需求将不断提升,但我国也不得不面临着石油资源储量少、石油进口对外依存度高、石油消费对生态环境造成破坏以及石油消费的效率仍有待提升等问题。文章在总结借鉴国内外学者已有的关于石油消费对经济增长的影响命题的研究思路和方法,结合我国石油消费与国民经济发展的实际情况,对我国石油消费对经济增长的影响进行定性分析与定量研究,得出以下结论与对策:(1)自1990年以来,我国石油能源消费强度系数是持续快速下滑的,由1980年该指标为1.84万吨标煤/亿元降到2015年0.08万吨标煤/亿元,这直接说明了随着经济的发展、技术水平的提升,石油能源消费的有效率大幅度提升;自1991年以后,我国石油消费弹性系数基本保持着一个比较稳步的上升,上升趋势既说明我国石油消费需求在提升,从侧面显示我国节能减排工作仍然任重道远,石油消费的效率仍需提升;(2)国内生产总值、石油消费、资本投入总量、劳动力使用数量四个变量间存在长期的均衡协整关系,其中:我国石油的消费量与国民经济增长是呈正向相关关系,且石油消费每增长1%,我国GDP的增长幅度为0.23%,且回归结果显著,虽然石油消费的系数为正,但是其系数并不大,说明石油消费对我国经济增长的贡献度有限;通过误差修正模型可知,现阶段我国石油消费对经济增长的正向作用依旧明显,但是其边际效率在下降,这说明我国应该提高石油的利用效率。(3)石油消费与经济增长存在互为Granger因果的关系,即石油消费的增长拉动了经济的持续增长,经济的进一步增长也加速了石油消费量的提升。(4)随着新能源的研发与推广,我国石油消费对于经济增长的影响将会逐步降低。在此情况下,文章提出加快“开源”建设的进程,搭建可持续性的能源供给体系、加强“节流”研发与推广,提升石油资源的实际利用效率、加大“风险”防控的力度,构建多元化石油资源供给体系三大对策建议,以期促进我国经济实现可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Petroleum has the reputation of "industrial blood" and occupies an extremely important position in the national economic system of various countries. With the high efficiency, steady and sustainable development of our economy, the demand for oil consumption in our country will continue to increase. However, China also has to face low reserves of petroleum resources and high dependence on foreign oil imports. Oil consumption has caused damage to the ecological environment and the efficiency of oil consumption still needs to be improved. This paper summarizes and draws lessons from the existing research ideas and methods on the influence of oil consumption on economic growth. According to the actual situation of petroleum consumption and the development of national economy in China, this paper makes a qualitative analysis and quantitative study on the impact of petroleum consumption on economic growth in China, and draws the following conclusions and countermeasures: 1) since 1990, The intensity coefficient of petroleum energy consumption in China has been declining rapidly, from 18,400 tons of standard coal / billion yuan in 1980 to 800 tons of standard coal / 100 million yuan in 2015, which directly shows that with the development of economy, the technical level is improving. Since 1991, the elasticity coefficient of petroleum consumption in China has maintained a relatively steady increase, which indicates that the demand for oil consumption in China is on the rise. It shows that China's energy conservation and emission reduction work still has a long way to go, and the efficiency of oil consumption still needs to be improved.) there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship among the four variables of GDP, oil consumption, total capital input, and the amount of labor force used. Among them: the oil consumption in China is positively correlated with the national economic growth, and for each increase of oil consumption, the GDP growth range of our country is 0.23 and the regression result is significant. Although the oil consumption coefficient is positive, the oil consumption coefficient is not large. According to the error correction model, the positive effect of oil consumption on economic growth is still obvious, but its marginal efficiency is declining. This indicates that our country should improve the efficiency of oil utilization. (3) there is a Granger causality relationship between oil consumption and economic growth, that is, the growth of oil consumption drives the sustained economic growth. With the development and promotion of new energy sources, the impact of oil consumption on economic growth in China will be gradually reduced. In this case, the article proposes to speed up the process of "open source" construction. To build a sustainable energy supply system, to strengthen the R & D and promotion of "throttling", to improve the actual utilization efficiency of petroleum resources, to strengthen the prevention and control of "risk", and to build a diversified supply system of petroleum resources. With a view to promoting our economy to achieve sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F124.1

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