基于markov理论的油气管道维修策略研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 10:38

本文关键词： 管道失效剩余寿命 markov过程成本维修　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：油气管道的建设在当代愈发频繁,而由油气管道出现泄漏造成的有毒气体扩散、燃烧、爆炸等事故会对人员生命及财产安全带来极为严重的隐患。为此建立行之有效的管道管理机制,保证其安全运行便具有十分重要的意义。在管道的管理工作中安排高效合理的维修策略是其重要的组成部分之一。论文主要对如下内容进行了研究:(1)分析了油气管道的失效模式,确定腐蚀缺陷的最大腐蚀深度为评价管道失效的指标。以管道的断裂力学形式为失效标准,比较油气管道的剩余应力与正常工作应力,将剩余应力等于正常工作应力作为油气管道的极限状态。ASME-B31G标准规定的管道剩余应力计算方法为基础,设计腐蚀损伤轴向与径向缺陷长度发展函数,只考虑点蚀的情况下,将所需要考虑的腐蚀缺陷尺寸简化为最大的腐蚀深度。(2)使用markov理论模型模拟具有腐蚀损伤的油气管道的劣化过程,得到管道状态概率与运行时间之间的对应关系,以及管道的概率寿命。通过将腐蚀损伤的径向腐蚀尺寸划分为离散的范围,将管道的劣化描述为管道在这些离散状态之间的转移,管道的失效概率描述为管道在某时刻在下一时刻跳转至失效状态的概率。(3)建立基于markov理论的油气管道维修决策模型。根据管道的机械特点和失效特点,将管道作为可修复系统进行研究。以markov理论的管道劣化模型为基础,加入维修的信息(修复率和成本),提出油气管道维修决策模型,可得到不同维修策略下管道长期内的可用度与总成本期望。并以XX线输油管道某管段为例,为其设计了在各状态(轻、中、重、严重、穿孔)分别采取不处理、修补、修复、更换、更换的维修策略建议。由于研究水平有限,本文所建立的模型假定不存在成本的时间价值以及技术进步的可能性,从而在全面性上存在一定不足,还需要更进一步的研究。
[Abstract]:The construction of oil and gas pipelines in contemporary become more frequent, and by the oil and gas pipeline leakage of toxic gases caused by diffusion, combustion, explosions and other accidents of people life and property safety brought serious hidden trouble. So as to establish an effective management mechanism of pipeline, to ensure its safe operation is of great significance. In the pipeline the management of work arrangements, reasonable maintenance strategy is one of its important components. This paper mainly studied the following contents: (1) analysis of the failure modes of oil and gas pipeline, determine the maximum corrosion depth of corrosion defects as the evaluation index. The pipeline failure by fracture mechanics for the standard form of pipe failure, the remaining comparison oil and gas pipeline stress and normal working stress, residual stress is equal to the pipeline will be specified in the.ASME-B31G standard limit state of normal working stress as the oil and gas pipeline residual stress meter Calculation method for foundation, design of corrosion damage of axial and radial defect length development function, only consider the pitting situation, the need to consider the corrosion defect size is simplified as the maximum corrosion depth. (2) the deterioration process using the Markov model of oil and gas pipeline with corrosion damage, the corresponding relationship between the pipe state the probability and the running time, life expectancy and pipeline. The radial size division corrosion corrosion damage for discrete range, deterioration of piping is described as the transfer pipe between the discrete state, describing the failure probability of pipeline for probability of pipeline at some time in the next moment to jump to the failure state. (3) the establishment of maintenance decision theory Markov model based on oil and gas pipeline. According to the mechanical characteristics and failure characteristics of the pipeline, the pipeline as a repairable system is studied. The pipeline with Markov theory The deterioration model, adding repair information (repair rate and cost), and put forward the maintenance decision of oil and gas pipeline model, can obtain the desired pipeline under different maintenance strategies in the long-term availability and total cost. And the XX line in a section of pipeline as an example, the design in each state (light. In heavy, serious, perforation) were taken without treatment, repair, repair, replacement, maintenance strategy suggestions replacement. Because of the limited level, the model in this paper assumes that there is no possibility of the time value of cost and technical progress, and there are some deficiencies in the comprehensive, further research is needed.

【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973.8

【引证文献】