长输油气管道风险评价及失效后果模拟方法研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 22:21

本文关键词： 管道风险评分法熵权理论敏感性模糊指数综合法 FDS　出处：《东北石油大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：保障长距离运输的油气管道的安全运营对我国经济安全的健康发展有着重要影响,但由于石油和天然气是易燃易爆有毒的,一旦管道事故发生,容易引起火灾及爆炸、中毒、污染环境等恶性后果,对国民经济及人民的人身安全均会造成严重的伤害与损失。因此对长输油气管道进行风险评价及失效后果的模拟,对维护管道的完整性、保障管道安全运行具有重要的指导意义。本文以长输油气管道风险评价这一工程问题为背景,综合采用理论分析、实践验证、分析模拟等方法,在基于管道风险评分法的基础上,开展了长输油气管道风险评价方法及失效后果的模拟研究。首先,针对管道风险评分法中各项指标因素在实际评价过程中,其风险的升高和降低无法体现在其所对应的权重值的这一问题,提出了熵权理论与因素敏感性分析相结合的权重分析方法,使各因素的权重能根据实际情况进行动态分配;其次针对评分法在对管道进行风险评价时对于诱发管道失效因素中的一些模糊性因素的处理常常差强人意或直接忽略不计,导致其风险评价结果不够精确,无法很好的表示出管道的真实风险状况这一问题,建立模糊指数综合法的数学模型,对模糊因素进行精确量化处理,并分别采用原评分法及改进的评分法对一在役管道进行了风险评价,通过实际应用效果验证了改进方法的可行性与其结果的精确性;最后采用了FDS软件对管道泄漏火灾后果进行了模拟研究,对火灾过程中火焰的燃烧状态,周围的温度,热辐射的变化进行了研究分析。研究结果对于油气管道的火灾的潜在危险区进行预测;以及安全防范措施的制定和应急救援措施的实施具有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The safe operation of oil and gas pipelines for long distance transportation has an important impact on the healthy development of economic safety in China. However, because oil and natural gas are flammable, explosive and toxic, once pipeline accidents occur, they are liable to cause fire, explosion and poisoning. Pollution of the environment and other malignant consequences will cause serious damage and loss to the national economy and the personal safety of the people. Therefore, risk assessment and simulation of the failure consequences of the long oil and gas pipeline are carried out to maintain the integrity of the pipeline. It is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of pipelines. Based on the engineering problem of risk assessment of long oil and gas pipelines, this paper comprehensively adopts the methods of theoretical analysis, practical verification, analysis and simulation, etc. Based on the pipeline risk scoring method, the risk assessment method and the failure consequences of the long oil and gas pipeline are simulated. The rise and decrease of the risk can not be reflected in the corresponding weight value. A new weight analysis method combining entropy weight theory and factor sensitivity analysis is proposed, which makes the weight of each factor be dynamically distributed according to the actual situation. Secondly, when evaluating pipeline risk, the fuzzy factors of pipeline failure induced by scoring method are often not satisfactory or ignored directly, which leads to the inaccuracy of risk evaluation results. The problem of the real risk of pipeline can not be well expressed, the mathematical model of fuzzy index synthesis method is established, and the fuzzy factors are accurately quantified. The original scoring method and the improved scoring method are used to evaluate the risk of a pipeline in service. The feasibility of the improved method and the accuracy of the results are verified by the practical application results. Finally, FDS software is used to simulate the fire consequences of pipeline leakage. The combustion state of the flame and the ambient temperature during the fire are studied. The change of thermal radiation is studied and analyzed. The results are of great significance to predict the potential danger areas of oil and gas pipeline fires, and to formulate safety precautions and implement emergency rescue measures.
【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

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