基于事故树法的海洋平台重大事故风险分析

发布时间：2018-02-22 16:39

本文关键词： 海洋平台事故树层次分析法三角模糊数　出处：《浙江海洋大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着人们对石油需求的日益增长,陆上油气储量将会逐渐下降,人类对海上油气资源开发步伐不断的加快。海洋开发是一种“高技术、高投入、高风险”的作业,因此迫切需要对海洋平台建设中可能发生的危险进行科学地辨识、评价、预警和预控,这也成为海洋平台作业中面临的重大问题。本文以美国墨西哥湾深水地平线钻井平台为案例,采用两种理论方法对平台进行安全评估分析。1.事故树分析法应用与验证基于事故树分析法(FTA)的基本理论及其分析步骤等相关知识,创新性地构建了海洋平台事故树,综合因素分析与计算的结果表明,美国墨西哥湾深水地平线钻井平台井喷的主要原因在于人为失误。2.三角模糊-层次分析法应用与验证基于层次分析法,运用其计算理念对海洋平台事故的影响因素进行了专家打分,并计算出各个因素的权重,在此基础上引入三角模糊数进行分析评价,评价结果与事故树分析法相一致。为了尽可能地降低事故发生的可能性,针对海洋平台中存在的主要危险因素,本文提出了从根本上预防、关键处控制顶事件这两大层面的有效解决措施。本文限于收集的指标数量和范围尚不足够,研究结果具有一定的不确定性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing demand for oil, onshore oil and gas reserves will gradually decline, and the pace of human exploitation of offshore oil and gas resources will continue to accelerate. Ocean development is a kind of "high technology, high investment, high risk" operation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for scientific identification, evaluation, early warning and pre-control of possible hazards in the construction of offshore platforms. This has also become a major problem in offshore platform operations. This paper takes the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico as an example. This paper adopts two theoretical methods to analyze the safety of the platform. 1. The accident tree analysis method is applied and verified based on the basic theory and analysis steps of the accident tree analysis method, and the accident tree of the offshore platform is constructed innovatively. The results of comprehensive factor analysis and calculation show that the main cause of blowout of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico of the United States is human error .2.The application and verification of Triangle Fuzzy-Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is based on AHP. The influence factors of offshore platform accidents are scored by experts with its calculation idea, and the weight of each factor is calculated. On the basis of this, triangular fuzzy numbers are introduced to analyze and evaluate the factors. The evaluation results are consistent with the accident tree analysis method. In order to reduce the possibility of accidents as far as possible, this paper puts forward the fundamental prevention in view of the main risk factors existing in the offshore platform. In this paper, the number and scope of indicators collected are not enough, and the research results are uncertain.
【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE58

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