基于可靠性的海底管道泄漏后果研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 10:15

本文选题：海底管道　切入点：泄漏事故　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：海底管道是海上油气输出的“生命线”。相对于陆上油气管道,海底管道面临着更为复杂的海洋环境,一旦发生泄漏或者破裂,则难以修复,或者修复的成本很高。当前对于泄漏等事故特别是赔偿,难以界定,因此当海底管道管道发生泄漏时,后评结果显得极为重要,科学的后评结果可为事故发生及事故赔偿建立合理的体系。论文主要研究了海底管道泄漏事故的原因,泄漏概率,泄漏量,泄漏发生后的应急成本,社会经济成本以及对生态系统的影响,从而为海底管道风险评价提供建议及对泄漏事故赔偿做初步研究。首先,以先前学者的研究基础为依托,结合历史数据重点研究海底管道泄漏的原因,据此建立了海底管道泄漏Bow-tie(蝴蝶结)模型。该模型由故障树和事件树组成,利用概率论的思想预测海底管道发生泄漏事故的概率、对环境、经济等的影响大小。其次,利用输油管道溢油量估算模型(POSVEM)计算泄漏总量。再次,综合分析海底管道泄漏后的应急成本、社会-经济成本等,着重利用了HEA(资源等价法)分析石油泄漏总量对生态环境造成的损失。最后,文章以渤海某段管道泄漏为例进行分析,以管道所处环境,分析管道发生泄漏的原因及概率,得到泄漏发生后在相同环境下的生态系统补偿面积。论文通过对海底管道泄漏的预测,泄漏量及泄漏后果的分析,为风险的防范、风险管理、后续赔偿提供参考。鉴于国内海底管道泄漏研究起步晚,未建立完善的数据库,造成本文多参考国外数据,使得模型计算的结果并不能完全适用于国内情况。
[Abstract]:Submarine pipeline is the "lifeline" of offshore oil and gas export. Compared with onshore oil and gas pipeline, submarine pipeline faces more complicated marine environment. Once leakage or rupture occurs, it is difficult to repair. Or the cost of repairing it is very high. At present, it is difficult to define the damage such as leakage, especially compensation, so when the submarine pipeline leak occurs, the post-evaluation result is extremely important. Scientific post-evaluation results can set up a reasonable system for accident occurrence and accident compensation. This paper mainly studies the causes, leakage probability, leakage quantity, emergency cost after leakage of submarine pipeline leakage. Social and economic costs and impacts on ecosystems, thus providing advice for risk assessment of submarine pipelines and preliminary research on compensation for leakage accidents. First, based on previous research by scholars, Based on the historical data, the Bow-tie (Bow-tie) model of submarine pipeline leakage is established. The model is composed of fault tree and event tree, and the probability of submarine pipeline leakage accident is predicted by probability theory. Secondly, the oil spill estimation model (POSVEM) is used to calculate the total amount of oil leakage. Thirdly, the emergency cost, socio-economic cost and so on after the submarine pipeline leak are comprehensively analyzed. In this paper, the ecological environment loss caused by total oil leakage is analyzed by means of Hea (Resource equivalence method). Finally, taking a pipeline leakage in Bohai Sea as an example, the reason and probability of pipeline leakage are analyzed by taking the environment where the pipeline is located. The compensation area of ecosystem after the leakage occurred in the same environment is obtained. Through the prediction of the submarine pipeline leakage, the leakage amount and the analysis of the leakage consequences, the risk prevention, risk management, In view of the late start of domestic submarine pipeline leakage research and the failure to establish a perfect database, this paper often refers to foreign data, so the results of the model calculation can not be fully applicable to the domestic situation.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973;TE88

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