管道维抢修作业中操作人员的可靠性分析

发布时间：2018-03-25 05:07

本文选题：人的可靠性　切入点：管道维抢修　出处：《西南石油大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：管道维抢修作业中人为因素的影响是管道可靠性分析中不可缺少的一部分,不仅要考虑管道系统设备本身的可靠性,还要考虑影响管道系统可靠性的人为因素。众多研究表明,许多事故是人、设备和环境等因素共同作用的结果,而人为因素是许多事故的根源。因此,操作人员的可靠性研究对于管道维抢修作业是十分重要的。本文以操作人员的可靠性为主线,以管道维抢修作业为应用对象,进行了以下五个方面的研究:(1)对管道维抢修作业的特点和风险性进行了分析,总结整理了维抢修作业中操作人员的一些失误环节、失误行为以及造成的后果,结合所阐述的人为失误模型以及管道维抢修作业的过程,建立了管道维抢修作业中人为失误模型。(2)根据人的因素指标体系构建的原则和步骤,通过专家问卷调查方法,确定了管道维抢修作业中操作人员的因素指标体系,并对管道维抢修作业中影响操作人员失误的因素进行了详细地分析,运用层次分析法,确定了管道维抢修作业中人的因素指标权重。(3)根据灰色理论、层次分析法等理论,结合实例,运用灰色层次综合评价对管道维抢修作业中操作人员的失误因素指标进行综合评价。通过运用失败似然指数法和层次分析法相结合,计算出了管道维抢修作业中操作人员的可靠性。(4)从组织因素、个人因素、技术设备、群体因素和环境因素等五个方面制定了提高操作人员可靠性的措施,对每一个措施进行了详细的分析。提出改进措施后,并对改进后的操作人员可靠性进行了计算,与改进前进行了对比分析。通过分析,得出以下主要结论:(1)结合所阐述的人为失误模型和管道维抢修作业的过程,建立了管道维抢修作业中人为失误模型。该模型由信息的输入、信号的感应、响应阶段、人员失误作用在管道维抢修系统上、发生人员失误事件等5个部分组成。(2)管道维抢修作业中操作人员的因素指标体系为一个三级指标体系,其中一级指标5个,二级指标22个,三级指标因素共23个,包括了组织因素、个人因素、群体因素、环境因素和技术设备等5个方面。(3)计算出了管道维抢修作业中操作人员的因素指标权重,其中组织因素权重为0.45,个人因素为0.18,群体因素为0.13,环境因素为0.07,技术设备为0.17。(4)将失败似然指数法(FLIM)和层次分析法(AHP)相结合,计算出了管道维抢修操作人员8个典型的人因失误的概率以及可靠性。(5)结合管道维抢修作业的特点以及管道维抢修作业中人的因素体系,从组织因素、个人因素、群体因素、技术设备、环境因素等几个方面进行详细的分析,提出了提高管道维抢修作业中操作人员可靠性方法的措施,并对改进后的操作人员可靠性进行了计算,与改进前进行了对比分析,说明了所提出的提高人员可靠性的措施是可行的。
[Abstract]:The influence of human factors in pipeline repair operation is an indispensable part of pipeline reliability analysis. It is necessary to consider not only the reliability of pipeline system equipment, but also the human factors that affect the reliability of pipeline system. Many accidents are the result of a combination of human, equipment and environmental factors, and human factors are the root causes of many accidents. It is very important to study the reliability of the operator for the emergency repair of pipeline. This paper takes the reliability of the operator as the main line and takes the emergency repair of the pipeline as the application object. This paper analyzes the characteristics and risks of the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation, summarizes and sorts out some mistakes, behaviors and consequences of the operators in the maintenance rush repair operation, and analyzes the characteristics and risks of the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation in the following five aspects: (1) the article analyzes the characteristics and risks of the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation. Combined with the described human error model and the process of pipeline repair, the human error model in pipeline repair operation is established. The principles and steps of constructing human factor index system are established, and the method of expert questionnaire survey is adopted. The factor index system of the operator in the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation is determined, and the factors affecting the operator error in the pipeline maintenance operation are analyzed in detail, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used. According to grey theory, analytic hierarchy process and other theories, combined with an example, This paper makes a comprehensive evaluation of the failure factor index of the operator in the pipeline maintenance operation by using the comprehensive evaluation of grey hierarchy process. The failure likelihood index method is combined with the analytic hierarchy process method. The reliability of operators in pipeline maintenance repair operation is calculated. (4) measures to improve the reliability of operators are formulated from five aspects: organizational factors, personal factors, technical equipment, group factors and environmental factors. Each measure is analyzed in detail. After the improvement measures are put forward, the reliability of the improved operator is calculated and compared with that before the improvement. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) combined with the process of human error model and pipeline repair operation, the human error model in pipeline repair operation is established. The model consists of the input of information, the induction of signal, and the response stage. The factor index system of the operator in the pipeline maintenance emergency repair operation is a three-level index system, in which the first-grade index is 5, the second grade is 22. A total of 23 third-level index factors, including organizational factors, personal factors, group factors, environmental factors and technical equipment, were used to calculate the weight of the factors of the operators in the pipeline maintenance operation. The weight of organizational factor is 0.45, individual factor is 0.18, group factor is 0.13, environmental factor is 0.07, and technical equipment is 0.17.44) the failure likelihood index method (FLIMM) is combined with Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This paper calculates the probability and reliability of 8 typical manmade failures of pipeline maintenance operators, combined with the characteristics of pipeline maintenance rush repair operations and the human factor system in pipeline maintenance rush repair operations, from organizational factors, individual factors, group factors, etc. The technical equipment, environmental factors and other aspects are analyzed in detail, and the measures to improve the reliability of the operators in the pipeline repair operation are put forward, and the reliability of the improved operators is calculated. The comparison and analysis before the improvement shows that the proposed measures to improve the reliability of personnel are feasible.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE88

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