玉溪—富宁成品油管道建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 04:05

本文选题：成品油管道建设项目　切入点：风险管理　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国西部大开发战略的实施和交通条件的改善,滇、黔、桂三省区的经济发展迅速加快,其成品油消费量逐年增加。玉溪-富宁成品油管道建设项目正是为缓解西南地区成品油用料紧张问题而设立,它的建成将最终形成西南成品油供应的南线,使西南三省区的成品油供应形成环网,提高地区资源供应的可靠性和调动的灵活性。本文在介绍相关风险管理理论的基础上,运用风险管理技术和方法,结合玉溪-富宁成品油管道建设项目所开展的具体工作流程,对成品油输送管道建设进行风险管理研究。其中,主要的内容是通过对风险进行规划、识别、分析、监控,从而能够实现风险的有效管理,使得项目预定的目标得到顺利实现。将成品油管道线路工程施工工序分解为相对独立、易于管理的工作单元,通过专家打分评价其对项目进度、费用、质量、HSE目标的影响,并按风险评价结果排序,使得风险管理人员将风险应对的工作重点集中在那些风险值较大的风险事件上,以取得事半功倍的效果。玉溪-富宁成品油管道建设项目风险管理具有工程建设周期长、投资数额大；投入资本的可转移性和可替代性差,影响项目投资效果的因素很多,投资决策较为复杂；成品油管道建设成本变化较大、较快等特点。玉溪-富宁成品油管道建设项目风险识别主要有：施工准备阶段作业人员、施工材料设备机具己进入现场,作业人员的安全、卫生、职业风险、疾病等存在诸多风险,材料或设备由于本身存在的隐患以及操作人员不当操作的因素都可能导致机械故障或意外伤害事故。施工作业人员进入项目作业区域进行拆迁、四通一平等工作,加上施工噪音、施工污染、人员杂乱等因素,很容易与当地居民发生纠纷,一旦发生群体性事件难以迅速解决,将会严重影响项目的正常施工进度。还有设备漏油对环境造成污染等。对项目进度影响比较大的风险事件主要有：大型施工设备故障、测量放线与规划路线不一致、山区运管困难、爆破开挖事故等：对项目费用影响比较大的风险事件主要有：管道发生泄漏、测量放线与规划路线不一致、爆破开挖事故、山区陡坡影响焊工等：对项目质量影响比较大的风险事件主要有：管道发生泄漏、测量放线与规划路线不一致、布管时损害管道等：对HSE体系影响比较大的风险事件较多,主要有管道发生泄漏、人员管理不当或者缺乏HSE意识、劳保或防护设备缺失等。并提出项目实施准备阶段和运行阶段的风险控制、防范建议,主要有注重设计阶段风险防范、预防工程建设的操作风险、建立定时检查的机制、防范运输风险、施工完毕后的风险防范、建立评价保护制度、加强极端天气预警机制等建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the implementation of the western development strategy and the improvement of traffic conditions, the economic development of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi provinces has been speeding up rapidly. The consumption of refined oil products has increased year by year. The Yuxi-Funing Oil Product Pipeline Construction Project was set up to alleviate the shortage of oil products used in southwest China, and the completion of the project will eventually form the southern line for the supply of refined oil products in the southwest. In order to improve the reliability and flexibility of regional resource supply, this paper introduces the theory of risk management, and applies the technology and method of risk management. Combined with the concrete work flow of Yuxi-Funing oil product pipeline construction project, the risk management research on the construction of oil product pipeline is carried out. Among them, the main content is to plan, identify, analyze, monitor and control the risk. Thus the effective risk management can be realized, and the target of the project can be realized smoothly. The construction process of the product pipeline line project is decomposed into relatively independent and easy to manage work units, and the project progress is evaluated by experts. Cost, quality and impact of HSE objectives, and ranking by risk evaluation results, enable risk managers to focus their risk response efforts on those risk events with higher risk values, In order to achieve twice the result with half the effort. The risk management of Yuxi-Funing oil product pipeline construction project has long construction cycle, large investment amount, poor transferability and substitutability of investment capital, and many factors that affect the investment effect of the project. The investment decision is more complicated, the construction cost of finished oil pipeline changes greatly, and so on. The risk identification of Yuxi-Funing oil product pipeline construction project mainly includes: workers in construction preparation stage, construction materials, equipment and tools have entered the site, There are many risks to the safety, health, occupational risk and disease of the workers, Materials or equipment may lead to mechanical failure or accidental injury due to hidden dangers existing in themselves and improper operation of operators. Construction workers enter the project work area for demolition and relocation, and work such as "four connections and one level", etc. Combined with construction noise, construction pollution, messy personnel and other factors, it is easy to have disputes with local residents. Once mass incidents occur, it is difficult to resolve them quickly. It will seriously affect the normal construction progress of the project. There will also be pollution of the environment caused by the leakage of the equipment. The major risk events that have a greater impact on the progress of the project are: the failure of large construction equipment, the inconsistency between the measuring laying line and the planned route, The main risk events which have a great impact on the project cost are leakage of pipeline, inconsistency between measurement and planning route, blasting excavation accident, and so on. Mountain steep slope influence welder and so on: the risk events which have a great impact on the project quality mainly include: pipeline leakage, measurement line setting inconsistent with planning route, pipe layout damage pipeline, etc. The risk events that have a great impact on HSE system are more, There are mainly pipeline leakage, improper management of personnel or lack of HSE consciousness, labor insurance or lack of protective equipment, etc. It also puts forward risk control and prevention suggestions in the stage of project implementation preparation and operation, mainly focusing on risk prevention in the design phase. To prevent the operational risk of engineering construction, to establish the mechanism of periodic inspection, to guard against the transportation risk, to prevent the risk after construction, to establish the evaluation and protection system and to strengthen the early warning mechanism of extreme weather, etc.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88;F426.22

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