基于模糊数学的深水完井方法优选研究与应用

发布时间：2018-03-30 02:37

本文选题：深水完井优选　切入点：评价指标体系　出处：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,针对陆上油气田完井方法的优选理论已经非常成熟,这给深水完井方法优选带来了一些思路。陆上完井方法的优选主要依据地层岩石特性、原油性质以及工程措施需求等因素。并结合产能预测模型进行动态分析,再加上对完井方法的经济评价,从而对比得到合适的完井方法。但是随着我国对深水油气田的大力开发,陆上油气田完井方法优选的模型对深水油气田的适应性也越来越差。因此,论文围绕基于模糊数学的深水完井方法优选这一课题,从以下几个方面开展了研究工作。 (1)建立深水完井方法优选原则。调研并概述了深水油气田主要的完井方法,并结合传统的完井方式选择时所考虑的因素和原则,提出了针对深水油气田完井方法优选的原则。 (2)深水完井优选评价指标的确定及处理方法。通过分析深水完井的特点,建立了产能预测、经济评价、工程评价、HSE评估四大评价模型及相应十指标评价体系。文中的评价指标包括定量、定性两种指标。其中,定量指标通过产能动态预测模型与经济评价模型计算获得。对于定性指标,由于无法计算,常常所采用的方法是模糊数学的方法,建立了相应的指标量化度表将模糊的评价变成具体的数值,再用集值统计法对不同的评价集区间进行数据的处理,得到处理后的参数值。另外,根据各完井方法作业施工潜在的风险,单独建立完井作业事故树,用以评价不同完井方法完井事故风险,并将其转化为数学概率,加入优选评价十指标体系。 (3)确定各优选评价指标的权重值。在综合决策问题的处理上,层次分析法实用性很强,并且在确定层次模型的因素权重方面有完整的理论。利用层次分析法建立了深水完井优选指标层次模型,并计算出了深水完井优选系统中评价指标的权重值,为深水完井优选的成功实现提供了理论支持与技术可能。 (4)建立深水完井方法优选的模型。根据本深水完井的特点,采用了不确定性系统的信息熵法优选、灰色系统法优选和Vague集法建立了相应的优选模型。并利用平均值法、优序法、劣序法对三种不同优选模型得到的优选结果综合排序,得到最终的优选结果。其中首次在深水完井方法优选中使用的Vague集,是在模糊数学理论基础上的延伸,在隶属度上具有优于Fuzzy集的众多特点。以上方法的综合运用,将使得评判结果更为客观。 (5)在国外LIBONOLO深水稠油油田进行完井优选模型的应用和验证。并根据优选模型的成功应用,将优选模型利用Visual Basic进行编程,使得深水完井优选过程更加简单、直观。
[Abstract]:At present, the theory of optimal selection for the completion method of onshore oil and gas fields has been very mature, which brings some ideas to the optimal selection of deep-water completion methods. The optimal selection of onshore completion methods is mainly based on the characteristics of formation rocks. The characteristics of crude oil and the demand for engineering measures are analyzed in combination with the productivity prediction model and the economic evaluation of the completion method. However, with the development of deep water oil and gas fields in China, the model of optimal selection of completion methods for onshore oil and gas fields is becoming more and more suitable for deepwater oil and gas fields. This paper focuses on the optimization of deepwater completion method based on fuzzy mathematics, and carries out research work from the following aspects. The main completion methods of deep water oil and gas fields are investigated and summarized. Combined with the factors and principles taken into account in the selection of traditional completion methods, the principle of optimal selection of completion methods for deepwater oil and gas fields is put forward. Through analyzing the characteristics of deepwater completion, the productivity prediction and economic evaluation are established. The four evaluation models of HSE and the corresponding evaluation system of ten indexes are used in engineering evaluation. The evaluation indexes in this paper include quantitative and qualitative indexes. The quantitative indexes are obtained by the calculation of the dynamic productivity prediction model and the economic evaluation model. For qualitative indicators, the fuzzy mathematics method is often used for the qualitative indicators because they cannot be calculated. The corresponding index quantization degree table is established to convert fuzzy evaluation into concrete value, and then the data of different evaluation set interval are processed by set value statistics method, and the treated parameter value is obtained. According to the potential risks of well completion operation, the completion accident tree is established separately to evaluate the completion accident risk of different completion methods, and to convert it into mathematical probability, and to add the ten index system of optimal selection and evaluation. (3) to determine the weight value of each optimal evaluation index. The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is very practical in dealing with comprehensive decision problems. And there is a complete theory in determining the factor weight of the hierarchical model. By using AHP, the hierarchical model of the optimal selection index for deepwater completion is established, and the weight value of the evaluation index in the deep-water completion optimal selection system is calculated. It provides theoretical support and technical possibility for the successful implementation of deep water completion selection. According to the characteristics of the deepwater well completion, the information entropy method of uncertain system, the grey system method and Vague set method are used to establish the optimal selection model. The Vague set, which is used for the first time in deep water well completion method, is an extension of fuzzy mathematics theory. The membership degree is superior to the Fuzzy set, and the comprehensive application of the above methods will make the evaluation results more objective. 5) the application and verification of completion optimization model in LIBONOLO deep water heavy oil field abroad, and according to the successful application of the optimal selection model, the optimal selection model is programmed by Visual Basic, which makes the process of deep water completion optimization easier and more intuitionistic.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE257

【参考文献】