基于贝叶斯网络耦合方法的石化装置定量风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-30 11:17

本文选题：石化装置　切入点：定量风险评估　出处：《沈阳理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油化工行业是一个高风险产业,它不仅生产工艺复杂、运行条件苛刻,且涉及的物料危险性大,极易发生火灾、爆炸、群死群伤等事故。近年来,世界各国都加强了对石化行业重大事故的防护治理工作。通过对石化装置进行危险性分析和定量风险评估,以降低事故的发生概率,促进企业的本质安全化生产。本论文的主要研究内容如下:(1)收集、分析石化装置故障统计数据,采用可靠性理论研究石化装置的故障分布模型,通过Matlab软件对其进行分布函数的极大似然参数估计和K-S拟合检验,研究其故障分布规律。(2)分析石化装置的工艺流程,在石化装置危险性辨识的基础上,运用故障树法编制其火灾、爆炸事故故障树。(3)引入集对分析法,将其与贝叶斯网络法耦合,定量研究石化装置火灾、爆炸事故风险。建立石化装置火灾、爆炸事故贝叶斯网络模型,运用Matlab软件计算各基本事件的后验概率和重要度。计算系统的集对势,判定出装置整体的安全趋势。最终将两种方法所得结果相耦合,找出最易导致装置事故发生的原因,为企业制定生产装置的安全运行管理制度提供参考。(4)讨论石油化工装置的火灾、爆炸事故后果。对事故所造成的人员伤亡和财产损失进行后果分析,计算结果为企业整体的安全规划提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Petrochemical industry is a high-risk industry. It not only has complex production technology and harsh operating conditions, but also involves a large number of dangerous materials, which are prone to fire, explosion, mass death and mass injury and so on.In recent years, countries in the world have strengthened the prevention and treatment of major accidents in petrochemical industry.Through the risk analysis and quantitative risk assessment of petrochemical plants, the probability of accidents is reduced and the essential safety production of enterprises is promoted.The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) collecting and analyzing the statistical data of petrochemical plant faults, and using reliability theory to study the fault distribution model of petrochemical plant.The maximum likelihood parameter estimation of distribution function and K-S fitting test were carried out by Matlab software, and the fault distribution law was studied. (2) the process flow of petrochemical plant was analyzed. On the basis of hazard identification of petrochemical plant, the process of petrochemical plant was analyzed.By using fault tree method to compile the fire and explosion accident fault tree, the set pair analysis method is introduced, which is coupled with Bayesian network method to quantitatively study the risks of fire and explosion accidents in petrochemical plants.The Bayesian network model of fire and explosion accidents in petrochemical plant is established and the posterior probability and importance of each basic event are calculated by using Matlab software.The set potential of the system is calculated and the overall safety trend of the device is determined.Finally, the results of the two methods are coupled to find out the most likely causes of plant accidents, and to provide a reference for enterprises to formulate a safe operation management system for production units.) the fire and explosion consequences of petrochemical plants are discussed.The consequences of casualties and property losses caused by accidents are analyzed, and the results provide a theoretical basis for the overall safety planning of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE65;TQ086.2

【参考文献】