天然气分布式能源项目经济评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 15:26

本文选题：天然气分布式能源　切入点：经济评价　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着环境污染问题越来越严重,国内外社会对新型清洁能源的发展越来越重视,天然气分布式能源系统作为新能源应用的典范,既可以实现能源的阶梯利用,提供多种能源服务,提高能源效率,又可以减少对环境的污染,改善生活环境,还可以大大节省向供能末端输送能源的投资费用,在可预见的未来拥有广阔的发展空间。对天然气分布式能源系统的经济评价,为项目决策者提供决策信息,影响着项目的可行与否,因此,项目的经济评价方法的准确性、全面性对项目的未来有非常重要的意义,合适的经济评价方法将对天然气分布式能源发电的发展起到推动作用。本文首先介绍了天然气分布式能源系统的工作原理、节能效益和优缺点分析,在此基础上,对天然气分布式能源项目的财务评价和国民经济评价进行了简要介绍,并针对工程实例,根据上海金山某天然气分布式能源项目的实际技术经济参数,计算项目的收入、支出等基础数据,继而对项目进行财务评价分析,得出内部收益率、净现值、资本金净利润率、偿债备付率等财务评价指标,在对项目进行国民经济评价时,结合天然气分布式能源项目节能、高效率和提供多种能源服务的特点,确定其特有的环保外部性和供热外部性做为主要讨论对象。通过对传统的经济评价结果分析,总结出传统经济评价存在问题,一方面财务评价指标多,每个指标仅能反映项目的某个侧面,另一方面天然气分布式能源节能环保和提供多种服务的特点在经济性上未被重视,针对上述问题,论文借鉴数学方法层次分析法和模糊数学理论,在传统财务评价和国民经济评价的基础上对项目进行综合经济评价,建立综合评价模型,在综合经济评价模型中,运用层次分析法和模糊评价法,建立层次分析结构,将综合经济评价结论层层分解,通过两两对比,得出各评价指标权重,再运用模糊评价方法,计算综合隶属度,最终得到评价结果。通过对天然气分布式能源项目经济评价的研究,评价项目经济性的优劣,为项目决策者提供准确、直观的决策信息。
[Abstract]:As the environmental pollution problem becomes more and more serious, the development of new clean energy is paid more and more attention by the society at home and abroad. As a model of new energy application, natural gas distributed energy system can realize the ladder utilization of energy. Providing a variety of energy services, improving energy efficiency, reducing environmental pollution, improving the living environment, and significantly reducing the cost of investing in delivering energy to the end of the energy supply, The economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy system provides decision information for project decision makers, which affects the feasibility of the project, therefore, the accuracy of the economic evaluation method of the project. Comprehensiveness is of great significance to the future of the project, and an appropriate economic evaluation method will promote the development of distributed energy generation by natural gas. This paper first introduces the working principle of the distributed energy system for natural gas. Based on the analysis of energy-saving benefits and advantages and disadvantages, the financial evaluation and national economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy projects are briefly introduced. According to the actual technical and economic parameters of a natural gas distributed energy project in Jinshan, Shanghai, the basic data such as income and expenditure of the project are calculated, and then the financial evaluation of the project is carried out, and the internal rate of return, net present value, net profit margin of capital are obtained. When evaluating the national economy of the project, combining the characteristics of energy saving, high efficiency and various energy services provided by the natural gas distributed energy project, Determine its special environmental protection externality and heating externality as the main object of discussion. Through the analysis of the traditional economic evaluation results, we conclude that there are problems in the traditional economic evaluation, on the one hand, there are many financial evaluation indicators, Each index can only reflect one aspect of the project. On the other hand, the characteristics of distributing energy, energy saving, environmental protection and providing multiple services of natural gas have not been paid attention to economically. In view of the above problems, Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics theory, this paper carries on the comprehensive economic evaluation to the project on the basis of the traditional financial evaluation and the national economy evaluation, establishes the comprehensive evaluation model, and in the comprehensive economic evaluation model, The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy evaluation method are used to establish the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structure. The conclusion of the comprehensive economic evaluation is decomposed layer by layer. Through the comparison of two and two, the weight of each evaluation index is obtained, and then the comprehensive membership degree is calculated by using the fuzzy evaluation method. Finally, the evaluation results are obtained. Through the research on the economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy project, the advantages and disadvantages of the project economy are evaluated, and the accurate and intuitionistic decision information is provided for the project decision makers.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22

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