不同区制工业化水平下的石油消费分析——基于Path-STR模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 09:36

本文选题：工业化水平　切入点：石油消费　出处：《中国管理科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：经济的全球化、石油供需体系自身的复杂性使得石油消费和各影响因素之间的关系也变得复杂。本文从文献回顾和理论分析中得出影响石油消费的总量因素、结构因素和价格因素,基于1995年至2015年的数据进行通径分析,测算出各因素对石油消费的直接影响、间接影响以及总的影响程度,结果显示经济增长、工业化水平和国际原油价格是影响石油消费的主要因素。Johansen协整检验表明它们之间存在长期稳定关系,因此本文在此基础上运用平滑转换回归(STR)方法进一步对各因素的石油消费影响效应进行研究,得出如下结论:工业化与我国石油消费之间存在非线性关系,其明显的区间转换动态特征可用LSTR2模型来刻画。在加入了其它控制变量后,当滞后一期工业化水平处在低于-0.0045的低区制状态和高于0.0228的高区制状态时,工业化对石油消费产生抑制作用,此时的非线性特征最为明显;当滞后一期工业化水平处在两区制之间的中区制状态时,对石油消费的影响效应逐渐从负向抑制作用向稳定的线性正向促进作用转换。同时这种非线性关系使得经济-能源系统中的经济增长和国际油价对石油消费也产生复杂的影响。这为我国不同工业化时期在制定与节约能源、优化能源结构等相关政策时提供一定的依据。
[Abstract]:With the globalization of economy and the complexity of oil supply and demand system, the relationship between oil consumption and various factors becomes complicated.From the literature review and theoretical analysis, this paper draws the total factors, structural factors and price factors that affect oil consumption. Based on the data from 1995 to 2015, the path analysis is carried out, and the direct influence of each factor on oil consumption is calculated.Indirect effects, as well as overall impact levels, the results of which show that economic growth, level of industrialization and international crude oil prices are the main factors affecting oil consumption. Johansen cointegration test shows that there is a long-term and stable relationship between them.On the basis of this, this paper further studies the effects of various factors on oil consumption by using smooth transformation regression method, and draws the following conclusion: there is a nonlinear relationship between industrialization and oil consumption in China.The obvious dynamic features of interval transformation can be described by LSTR2 model.After adding other control variables, when the industrialization level is lower than -0.0045 and higher than 0.0228, the industrialization will inhibit the oil consumption, and the nonlinear characteristic is the most obvious.When the industrialization level is in the middle state between the two regions, the effect on oil consumption gradually changes from the negative inhibition to the stable linear positive promotion.At the same time, this nonlinear relationship makes the economic growth and international oil price in the economic-energy system have a complex impact on oil consumption.This provides a basis for formulating and saving energy and optimizing energy structure in different industrialization periods in China.
【作者单位】：西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院;陕西师范大学国际商学院;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院;香港城市大学管理科学系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473155) 陕西省青年科技新星计划项目(2016KJXX-14) 西安电子科技大学基本科研业务费项目(JB160603)
【分类号】：F224;F426.22

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