基于数理统计的海洋平台燃爆数值建模优化研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 11:28

本文选题：数值模型 + 障碍物　；参考：《中国石油大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：海洋平台燃爆风险分析的关键基础之一是数值模型的建立,然而由于没有网格、障碍物拥塞度等的统一建模标准,难以保障超压载荷结果预测精度。基于数理统计理论离散超压及其影响因素的数学物理方程,构建超压后果集、模型集与工况条件集;进而借助拉丁超立方抽样,抽取不同工况条件组成的向量空间,以此进行模型建立的网格优化、物理模型优选方案及相似增补方案的分析;最后,以模型预测与理论模型结果的相关系数为优化结果考核指标,获取具有良好工程适用性的数值网格尺寸、障碍物删减尺寸等。结果表明:海洋平台燃爆数值模型核心区域的网格尺寸为0.2 m;对于在役阶段的平台,建模过程中可直接忽略等效直径小于0.06 m的障碍物,可采用均匀圆管替代等效直径小于0.08 m的障碍物;对概念设计阶段的平台,可将等效直径为0.08 m的圆管用于数值建模,代表平台拥塞度,从而实现在保障超压预测准确度的基础上较大程度地减轻建模工作量。
[Abstract]:One of the key foundations of explosion risk analysis for offshore platforms is the establishment of numerical models. However, it is difficult to ensure the accuracy of prediction of overpressure load results due to the lack of unified modeling standards such as mesh and obstruction congestion degree.Based on mathematical statistics theory to discretize the mathematical and physical equations of overpressure and its influencing factors, the result set, model set and working condition set of overpressure are constructed, and then the vector space composed of different working conditions is extracted by Latin hypercube sampling.Finally, the correlation coefficient between the model prediction and the theoretical model results is taken as the evaluation index of the optimization results.Obtain the numerical mesh size with good engineering applicability, obstacle reduction size and so on.The results show that the mesh size of the core area of the numerical model is 0.2 m, and the obstacles with equivalent diameter less than 0.06 m can be neglected directly during the modeling process of the platform in service.The uniform circular tube can be used to replace the obstacle whose equivalent diameter is less than 0.08 m, and the equivalent diameter of 0.08 m tube can be used in the numerical modeling of the platform in the conceptual design stage, which represents the degree of congestion of the platform.Thus, the modeling workload can be greatly reduced on the basis of ensuring the accuracy of overpressure prediction.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;杰斯康软件有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51579246) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项(15CX05018A,15CX05003A,16CX06019A) 工业和信息化部高技术船舶科研计划项目(工信部联装[2016]24号)
【分类号】：TE58

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