天然气长输管道高后果区识别与风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 08:10

本文选题：天然气长输管道 + 模拟　；参考：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国天然气长输管道建设速度与城市发展速度的迅速增加,越来越多的长输管道经过人口聚集、建构筑物集中的区域,一旦管道在这些区域发生事故将造成严重的后果,这些管道经过的区域称为高后果区。“11·22青岛输油管爆炸事故”、7月31日高雄燃气爆炸事故都为人们敲响了警钟,因此需要提高对油气管道高后果区的重视度。国外政府在2000年初已经出台了油气管道高后果区相关的法律法规,国外研究机构与学者也随后对油气管道高后果区进行了研究,而我国目前缺乏油气管道高后果区的法律法规,相关研究也处于空白。本文旨在探索适合我国国情的天然气长输管道高后果区识别与等级划分的依据,研究高后果区的风险评价方法,为我国天然气长输管道高后果区的安全管理提供有效的技术手段。论文主要包括以下研究内容： (1)分析国内某典型长输管道高后果区的现场调查数据,采用因子分析法确定我国输气管道高后果区的特征因素及其贡献率,提取高后果区的识别因素,然后结合我国国情和现场调查数据分析结果识别因素的分布情况,为划分高后果区识别因素的重要程度提供客观依据。 (2)建立适用于天然气长输管道的泄漏、扩散、火灾、爆炸模型,并考虑天然气的受力情况对模型进行修正。在此基础上采用PHAST软件模拟事故发生情况,结合火灾爆炸事故伤害准则、国家安全事故等级确定事故热辐射的影响范围和冲击波超压的影响范围,为高后果区范围的确定提供依据。 (3)提出新的高后果区范围和管道的分段原则,依据人口因素、建构筑物因素、特殊自然环境因素、经济因素等内容,再采用欧几里德距离和TOPSIS方法将四大识别因素结合,建立天然气长输管道高后果区的识别模型,提出高后果区识别与等级划分的判定标准。 (4)结合《管道风险管理手册》和相关文献提供的天然气长输管道的风险因素,考虑第三方破坏的重要性,建立高后果区的失效可能性指标体系。基于模糊数学理论,针对指标体系叠加隐藏指标低分值的情况,提出高后果区失效概率的计算方法。采用风险矩阵法,依据高后果区失效概率和高后果区等级两大指标,确定天然气长输管道高后果区的风险等级。将本文的研究成果应用于西气东输一线苏浙沪管段,所得评价结果符合该管段的客观实际。
[Abstract]:With the rapid increase of natural gas pipeline construction speed and urban development speed in China, more and more long-distance pipelines pass through the areas where the population is concentrated and the structures are concentrated. Once the pipeline accidents occur in these areas, it will cause serious consequences. The area through which these pipelines pass is called the high-consequence area. "11 22 Qingdao pipeline explosion accident", the gas explosion accident in Kaohsiung on July 31 all sounded the alarm bell for people, so it is necessary to pay more attention to the high consequence area of oil and gas pipeline. At the beginning of 2000, foreign governments have issued laws and regulations related to high consequence areas of oil and gas pipelines, and foreign research institutions and scholars have also subsequently carried out research on high consequence areas of oil and gas pipelines. However, at present, China lacks laws and regulations on high consequence areas of oil and gas pipelines. The relevant research is also in blank. The purpose of this paper is to explore the basis for identifying and classifying the high consequence areas of natural gas pipelines suitable for the national conditions of our country, and to study the risk assessment methods of the high consequence areas. It provides an effective technical means for the safety management of the high-consequence area of long-distance natural gas pipeline in our country. The thesis mainly includes the following research contents: 1) analyzing the field investigation data of the high consequence area of a typical long-distance pipeline in China, using factor analysis method to determine the characteristic factors and their contribution rate of the high consequence area of the gas pipeline in China, and extracting the identification factors of the high consequence area. Then combining with the situation of our country and the distribution of the identification factors in the field survey data, the objective basis is provided for the important degree of distinguishing the factors in the high consequence area. (2) the model of leakage, diffusion, fire and explosion for long distance natural gas pipeline is established, and the model is modified considering the stress of natural gas. On this basis, using PHAST software to simulate the accident, combined with the fire and explosion accident injury criteria, the national safety accident grade to determine the impact range of thermal radiation and shock wave overpressure. To provide the basis for the determination of the area of high consequence. The paper puts forward the new segmental principle of high consequence area scope and pipeline. According to the population factor, the building structure factor, the special natural environment factor, the economic factor and so on, the Euclidean distance and the TOPSIS method are adopted to combine the four identifying factors. The identification model of high consequence area of long distance natural gas pipeline is established, and the criterion of high consequence area identification and classification is put forward. 4) considering the importance of third party damage and considering the risk factors of long distance natural gas pipeline provided by Pipeline risk Management Manual and related literature, the failure possibility index system of high consequence area is established. Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, a method for calculating the failure probability of high consequence region is presented in view of the low score of hidden index superimposed by index system. Risk matrix method is used to determine the risk level of high consequence area of long distance natural gas pipeline according to the two indexes of failure probability and grade of high consequence area. The research results of this paper are applied to the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shanghai pipe sections where the gas is transported from the west to the east, and the evaluation results are in line with the objective reality of the section.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973

【参考文献】