台风下TLP立管系统可靠性评估

发布时间：2018-04-29 15:16

本文选题：TLP + 立管系统　；参考：《海洋工程》2017年04期

【摘要】：针对在南海海域频发的台风自然灾害,考虑海况随机性、结构随机性以及作业参数的随机性,采用梯度投影确定取样点的响应面法,分别建立P2D、D2P和P2P(P指生产立管,D指钻井立管)三种作业模式下TLP串行立管系统的结构极限状态方程。并在建立立管可靠性分析模型的基础上,确定一种立管可靠度计算方法。算例结合南海某TLP平台给出了上述方法的具体应用。研究表明,10年一遇台风情况下,P2D、D2P和P2P三种工况中生产立管系统的失效概率均小于0.001%,钻井立管系统的可靠度分别为0.016%和0.113%。在大于200年一遇的强台风情况下,P2P工况时的上下游生产立管系统失效概率均大于0.32%和0.018%。因此建议10年一遇台风情况下,停止钻井立管作业;在大于200年一遇的强台风情况下,停止生产立管作业。研究结果可为南海TLP立管系统可靠度评估及安全作业技术支持。
[Abstract]:Considering the randomness of sea conditions, structural randomness and operational parameters, a gradient projection method is used to determine the response surface of sampling points in view of the frequent typhoon natural disasters in the South China Sea. The structural limit state equations of the TLP serial riser system under three operation modes of P2D D2P and P2P(P production are established respectively. On the basis of establishing the reliability analysis model of riser, a calculation method of riser reliability is determined. An example is given to illustrate the application of the above method to a TLP platform in the South China Sea. The results show that the failure probability of production riser system is less than 0.001 under the condition of typhoon in 10 years, and the reliability of drilling riser system is 0.016% and 0.113%, respectively. The failure probability of upstream and downstream riser systems in the case of a strong typhoon of more than 200 years is greater than 0.32% and 0.018% respectively. Therefore, it is suggested that the drilling riser should be stopped in the case of a typhoon once in 10 years, and the production of riser in the case of a strong typhoon more than 200 years. The results can be used to evaluate the reliability of TLP riser system in the South China Sea and provide technical support for safe operation.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;中海油深圳分公司;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2015CB251200) 国家科技重大专项“张力腿平台钻完井丛式立管系统设计与安全作业技术研究”(2016ZX05057-011) 山东胜利石油装备产业技术研究院山东省海洋石油装备重点实验室(KRKFJJ-01)
【分类号】：P756.2;TE95

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