成品油输油站场风险评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 00:18

本文选题：成品油输油站场 + 风险评价　；参考：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：输油气站场是油气长输管道的核心单元,承担着增压、接收、分输、计量和清管等重要任务,站场设施的安全状况长期以来都是国家和社会所关注的焦点问题。与长输管道风险评价技术相比,由于输油气站场设备种类繁多,工艺流程复杂,技术要求相对较高,相关研究起步较晚,目前国内站场风险评价技术仍然处于探索阶段。为完善国内输油气站场风险评价技术,本文以成品油中间输油站场为对象开展风险评价技术研究。论文的主要研究内容如下： (1)采用FMEA (failure mode and effects analysis)分析了站场典型设备设施的失效模式和原因,得到站内设备设施的主要风险因素。针对目前国内缺乏相关输油站场设备失效数据库的现状,提出一种基于专家评判的设备失效率计算方法。 (2)根据成品油输油站场的特点,从风险的角度将其划分为清管器接收子系统、泄压子系统、过滤子系统、混油处理子系统、增压子系统、计量分输子系统、清管器发送子系统等7个风险区块。基于GO (goal oriented)法原理建立了成品油输油站场失效可能性分析方法,分析过程充分考虑了输油站场系统中存在的停工相关、维修相关和冗余备用相关等复杂相关性。 (3)基于事件树分析法确定成品油输油站场设施失效后可能发生的后果模式；建立了池火、蒸气云爆炸和闪火的发生可能性和危害区域的定量计算模型,提出了人员伤亡和经济损失的计算方法。 (4)针对风险矩阵法和基于损失期望的风险值计算法存在的不足,引入模糊逻辑理论改进风险矩阵,建立了风险计算的模糊推理系统,既得到了评价对象的风险等级,同时明确了相同风险等级对象的风险排序。在此基础上,建立了成品油输油站场的风险评价模型,并详细说明了相应评价流程。 (5)根据本文建立的风险评价模型对兰成渝管道的某座中间输油站进行评价,结果表明该站场的风险处于可接受范围之内,与运行现状基本吻合。本文的研究成果能够在一定程度上补充和完善现有的站场风险评价和完整性管理技术,为保障输油管道系统安全运行提供理论支撑。
[Abstract]:Oil and gas station is the core unit of long distance oil and gas pipeline, which undertakes the important tasks of supercharging, receiving, dividing, metering and cleaning. The safety of station facilities has long been the focus of national and social concern. Compared with the long distance pipeline risk assessment technology, because of the variety of equipment, complex technological process, relatively high technical requirements, the related research started relatively late, the domestic station risk assessment technology is still in the exploration stage. In order to improve the risk assessment technology of oil and gas transportation station in China, the risk assessment technology is studied in this paper. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: 1) FMEA failure mode and effects analysis is used to analyze the failure modes and causes of typical equipments and facilities in the station yard, and the main risk factors of the equipment facilities in the station are obtained. In view of the lack of relevant equipment failure database in China, a calculation method of equipment failure rate based on expert evaluation is put forward. (2) according to the characteristics of the product oil transportation station, it can be divided into three subsystems from the risk point of view: the receiving subsystem, the pressure relief subsystem, the filtering subsystem, the oil mixture treatment subsystem, the booster subsystem and the metering subsystem. Pipe cleaner sending subsystem and other seven risk blocks. Based on the principle of go goal oriented method, the failure probability analysis method of finished oil transportation station is established. The complex correlation such as shutdown correlation, maintenance correlation and redundancy correlation are fully considered in the analysis process. Based on the method of event tree analysis, the model of the possible consequences after the failure of the facilities of the oil product transportation station is determined, and a quantitative calculation model of the occurrence possibility and hazard area of pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and flash fire is established. The calculation methods of casualties and economic losses are put forward. 4) aiming at the shortcomings of the risk matrix method and the risk value calculation method based on loss expectation, the fuzzy logic theory is introduced to improve the risk matrix, and the fuzzy inference system for risk calculation is established. At the same time, the risk ranking of the same risk level objects is defined. On this basis, the risk assessment model of oil product transportation station is established, and the corresponding evaluation flow is explained in detail. (5) according to the risk evaluation model established in this paper, a middle oil transportation station in Lancheng Chongqing pipeline is evaluated. The results show that the risk of the station is within the acceptable range, which is basically consistent with the current operation situation. The research results of this paper can supplement and improve the existing station risk assessment and integrity management technology to a certain extent, and provide theoretical support for ensuring the safe operation of oil pipeline system.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

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