油气管道量化风险控制技术研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 03:20

本文选题：因果分析 + 保护层方法　；参考：《油气田环境保护》2016年05期

【摘要】：针对风险控制无法有效量化问题,应用因果分析和保护层分析方法各自的特点,建立了基于因果分析-保护层方法的风险控制技术。通过应用因果分析技术对特定风险场景进行系统原因分析,查找出风险控制的关键致因,利用保护层方法辨识出关键致因的独立保护层,依据系统可靠性理论计算特定场景中独立保护层的失效频率,结合企业的风险标准和风险可接受水平,确定是否需要增加新的独立保护层或提高已有独立保护层的可靠性来达到企业理想的风险水平。以中石油西部管道公司典型管道系统为例,验证了该技术的可行性。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that risk control can not be quantified effectively, a risk control technique based on causality analysis and protective layer method is established by applying the characteristics of causality analysis and protective layer analysis. By using causality analysis technology to analyze the systematic cause of a particular risk scenario, the key causes of risk control are found out, and the independent protective layer of the key cause is identified by using the protective layer method. According to the system reliability theory, the failure frequency of the independent protection layer in a particular scenario is calculated, and the risk standard and the risk acceptable level of the enterprise are combined. Determine whether it is necessary to add a new independent protection layer or improve the reliability of the existing independent protection layer to achieve the desired risk level of the enterprise. Taking the typical pipeline system of PetroChina Western Pipeline Company as an example, the feasibility of the technology is verified.
【作者单位】：中国石油西部管道分公司质量安全环保处;中国石油西南管道公司建设项目管理中心技术部;中国石油管道建设项目经理部;北京理工大学机电学院;
【分类号】：TE973;TE88

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