城镇油气管道风险评价指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 06:37

本文选题：城镇油气管道 + 肯特评分法　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：油气管道作为一种跨区域的基础设施,在正常运营状态下是一种安全可靠的运输方式,但是因管道泄漏而导致事故发生时,将会带来不可估量的严重后果,论文针对油气管道开展风险评价研究,旨在充分了解管道的运行状态和危险管段情况,以便提前采取预防性技术措施,防止管道事故的发生。本文对国内外油气管道研究现状进行了分析总结,结合“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故,以管道泄漏为顶上事件,建立了Bow-tie模型,分析得出油气管道规划不合理和应急救援不力是造成此次重大伤亡损失的重要原因。论文针对传统肯特评分法应用于城镇油气管道风险评价中存在的不足,从管道规划、设计、施工、运营、维护等管道生命全过程构建了城镇油气管道风险评价指标体系,与传统肯特评价指标相比,增加了两个一级指标,构成了包括规划指标、第三方破坏指标、腐蚀指标、设计指标、误操作指标、应急指标的新评价指标体系,并通过调查问卷咨询专家对细化指标的意见与建议进行了修改和完善。利用层次分析法确定了指标体系中各指标的权重,根据权重值确定了各指标的分值,重点给出了规划指标和应急指标中每个二级指标和三级指标的评分准则。运用新构建的城镇油气管道风险评价指标体系对东黄复线(青岛段)油气管道进行了综合评价,通过评分计算得出管段1属于中等风险区,管段2属于高风险区,管段3属于中等风险区。并根据评价结果提出了对策措施。验证了改进后的肯特评价模型能够从管道整个生命周期全面具体地反映管道风险,为今后管道风险管理工作提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:As a cross-regional infrastructure, oil and gas pipeline is a safe and reliable transportation mode in normal operation, but when accidents occur due to pipeline leakage, it will bring incalculable serious consequences. In this paper, a risk assessment study on oil and gas pipelines is carried out in order to fully understand the operation status and dangerous section of pipelines, so as to take preventive technical measures in advance and prevent pipeline accidents. In this paper, the present situation of oil and gas pipeline research at home and abroad is analyzed and summarized. Combined with the leakage and explosion accident of "1122" Sinopec Donghuang oil pipeline, the Bow-tie model is established with the pipeline leakage as the top event. It is concluded that unreasonable oil and gas pipeline planning and poor emergency rescue are the main reasons for the heavy casualties. Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional Kent scoring method in the risk assessment of urban oil and gas pipeline, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of urban oil and gas pipeline risk from pipeline planning, design, construction, operation, maintenance and so on. Compared with the traditional Kent evaluation index, the new evaluation index system is composed of planning index, third party damage index, corrosion index, design index, misoperation index and emergency index. And through the questionnaire consultation experts to refine the index of the comments and suggestions were revised and improved. The weight of each index in the index system is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the score of each index is determined according to the weight value, and the scoring criteria of each secondary index and the third grade index in the planning index and the emergency index are given. Using the newly constructed risk evaluation index system of urban oil and gas pipeline, the comprehensive evaluation of oil and gas pipeline in Donghuang double Line (Qingdao Section) is carried out. The results show that section 1 belongs to medium risk area and section 2 belongs to high risk area. Section 3 belongs to medium risk area. According to the evaluation results, the countermeasures are put forward. It is verified that the improved Kent evaluation model can reflect the pipeline risk comprehensively and concretely from the whole pipeline life cycle and provide the decision basis for the pipeline risk management in the future.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE88

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