海底管道泄漏风险演化复杂网络分析

发布时间：2018-05-05 04:39

本文选题：海底管道 + 泄漏事故　；参考：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年04期

【摘要】：为了控制海底管道泄漏连锁风险,基于复杂网络,提出针对管道系统泄漏演化的半定量风险演化评价方法,将复杂的事故风险发展过程转化为简洁的网络分析计算。首先,构建包含30个风险节点与54条连接边的海底管道泄漏演化复杂网络模型;其次,采用无权有向网络中的节点出入度和聚类系数进行风险分析,确定影响管道泄漏的关键节点,提出断链控制方案;最后,将演化模型转化为带权的有向网络,采用Dijkstra算法计算各初始事件导致泄漏事故的最短路径。结果表明:海底管道系统泄漏网络的聚类系数为0.13,网络聚集程度偏低而演化性较强;各初始事件的最短路径均不超过10,表现出明显的小世界网络特征,初始事件的风险经少数几步传递即可导致泄漏事故的发生。海底管道泄漏风险演化规律的研究可为抑制初始事件、控制传递事件和减轻后果事件提供理论依据,对预防海底管道泄漏事故发生、保障管道持续安全运行具有现实意义。
[Abstract]:In order to control the chain risk of submarine pipeline leakage, based on complex network, a semi-quantitative risk evolution evaluation method for pipeline leakage evolution is proposed. The complex accident risk development process is transformed into simple network analysis and calculation. Firstly, the complex network model of submarine pipeline leakage evolution including 30 risk nodes and 54 connecting edges is constructed. Secondly, the node access degree and clustering coefficient in the unweighted directed network are used for risk analysis. Finally, the evolution model is transformed into a weighted directed network, and the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path of the leakage accident caused by the initial events. The results show that the clustering coefficient of leakage network of submarine pipeline system is 0.13, the network aggregation degree is low and the evolution is strong, and the shortest path of each initial event is less than 10, which shows the characteristic of small world network. The risk of the initial event can be transmitted in a few steps leading to the occurrence of the leakage accident. The study of the evolution law of submarine pipeline leakage risk can provide theoretical basis for restraining initial events, controlling transmission events and mitigating consequence events. It is of practical significance to prevent submarine pipeline leakage accidents and ensure the continuous and safe operation of pipelines.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0802305) 山东省科技发展计划项目(2014GSF120014)
【分类号】：TE58

【参考文献】