深水油气输运耦合风险分析及评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 01:06

本文选题：深水油气输运 + 风险群　；参考：《中国安全科学学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：为了研究深水输运系统风险耦合作用形式,评价其风险,保障输运系统安全运行,首先以深水输运系统3类风险群为视角,结合系统动力学(SD)原理建立系统风险流图。然后,考虑风险因子间的耦合关系,采用熵值法确定其权重。最后,根据耦合关系建立系统风险非线性耦合模型,计算系统风险群耦合度与风险值。以南海某深水油气田为例进行分析。实例分析结果表明,管内非常规流动风险系统、管外环境风险系统以及管体自身风险系统中,管内非常规流动风险系统的综合风险值最大,管体自身风险系统波动性最大;在双因素耦合下,管体自身风险系统与管内非常规流动风险系统带来的耦合风险最大。
[Abstract]:In order to study the risk coupling, evaluate the risk and ensure the safe operation of the deep water transportation system, the risk flow diagram of the system is established from the perspective of three types of risk groups of the deep water transportation system and the SDN principle of system dynamics. Then, considering the coupling relationship between risk factors, entropy method is used to determine its weight. Finally, the nonlinear coupling model of system risk is established according to the coupling relationship, and the coupling degree and risk value of system risk group are calculated. A deep water oil and gas field in the South China Sea is taken as an example. The results show that in the unconventional flow risk system, the environmental risk system outside the pipe and the risk system of the tube itself, the integrated risk value of the unconventional flow risk system in the pipe is the largest, and the volatility of the risk system of the tube itself is the greatest. Under the coupling of two factors, the coupling risk between the tube itself risk system and the unconventional flow risk system in the tube is the largest.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(51574263) 中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助(2462015YQ0403) 中国石油化工股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目(P14004)
【分类号】：TE88

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