不确定需求下页岩气开发项目投资时机与钻井数量选择研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 16:14

本文选题：不确定性 + 投资时机　；参考：《运筹与管理》2017年01期

【摘要】：基于工程化实现视角,结合规划产能与实际产出的不一致性和产量递减性,构建市场需求不确定情境下页岩气开发项目的投资时机与钻井数量决策模型,给出最佳投资时机和最优钻井数量的解析解,并探讨了不确定性、产量递减率、钻井成功率以及钻井成本变动对最佳投资时机和最优钻井数量的影响。结果表明最佳投资时机受单位有效钻井成本影响却与最优钻井数量多少无关,最优钻井数量受市场需求的期望增长率和波动影响而与市场需求量大小无关;不确定性、产量递减率或钻井成本的增大,将引起投资延迟和钻井数量增加,而钻井成功率的增大则会起到相反的作用;并发现投资阈值与最优钻井数量呈同向变动规律。
[Abstract]:Based on the view of engineering realization, combined with the inconsistency of planning capacity and actual output and the decline of output, the investment opportunity and drilling quantity decision model of shale gas development project under uncertain market demand is constructed. The analytical solutions of the optimal investment opportunity and the optimal drilling quantity are given, and the influences of uncertainty, production decline rate, drilling success rate and drilling cost on the optimal investment opportunity and the optimal drilling quantity are discussed. The results show that the optimal investment time is influenced by the unit effective drilling cost but not by the optimal drilling quantity, and the optimal drilling quantity is influenced by the expected growth rate and fluctuation of market demand, but not by the size of market demand. The increase of production decline rate or drilling cost will lead to the increase of investment delay and drilling quantity, while the increase of drilling success rate will play an opposite role, and it is found that the investment threshold and the optimal drilling number change in the same direction.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473193)
【分类号】：TE22;TE322

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