海底油气管道腐蚀失效预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 14:52

本文选题：海底管道 + 腐蚀预测　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着海上资源的不断开发,海底管道已经成为海上油气运输的生命线。然而由于管道腐蚀引发的事故越来越严重,严重的危害了人们所生存的环境。所以,为了避免海底管道事故的发生,减少对海洋生态环境的污染,提高海底管道的安全运行能力,对海底油气管道腐蚀失效进行研究是十分有意义的。论文基于大量国内外文献并结合我国海上油气的分布及所铺设管道的特点,首先,研究海上油气管道失效原因,结果表明,腐蚀是造成管道失效的主要原因,并对失效后果进行分析;其次,对海上油气管道腐蚀预测进行,研究了腐蚀深度预测模型和腐蚀速率预测模型,并对常用的几种模型,进行对比分析,在腐蚀预测的实例分析部分,采用Frechet分布理论建立海底油气管道腐蚀深度预测模型,预测整条运行管道的可能最大腐蚀深度,在腐蚀深度预测的基础上,利用马尔可夫链建立腐蚀预测模型,精确的预测出点腐蚀管道的腐蚀发展趋势;论文最后基于指数法对于管道失效可能造成的后果建立了海底管道失效后果评价指数模型,研究了失效后果对人员、环境、社会、经济和公司的影响,并以我国某海底管道为例运用REA模型把管道溢油情况对生态环境的损害影响货币化。由于研究水平有限,论文所建立模型的在数据方面仍需更完善的信息,在模型的全面性上仍存在一定的不足,这将是以后重点研究的方向。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of offshore resources, submarine pipeline has become the lifeline of offshore oil and gas transportation. However, the accidents caused by pipeline corrosion are becoming more and more serious, which seriously harms people's living environment. Therefore, in order to avoid the submarine pipeline accident, reduce the pollution to the marine ecological environment, improve the safe operation ability of the submarine pipeline, it is very meaningful to study the corrosion failure of the submarine oil and gas pipeline. Based on a large number of domestic and foreign documents and combined with the distribution of offshore oil and gas and the characteristics of pipelines laid in China, firstly, the failure reasons of offshore oil and gas pipelines are studied. The results show that corrosion is the main cause of pipeline failure. Secondly, the corrosion prediction model of offshore oil and gas pipeline is studied, the corrosion depth prediction model and corrosion rate prediction model are studied, and several commonly used models are compared and analyzed. In the part of example analysis of corrosion prediction, Frechet distribution theory is used to establish the prediction model of corrosion depth of submarine oil and gas pipeline, and the maximum corrosion depth of the whole pipeline is predicted, based on the prediction of corrosion depth. The corrosion prediction model is established by Markov chain, and the corrosion trend of the pipeline is predicted accurately. Finally, based on the exponential method, the evaluation index model of pipeline failure is established. The effects of failure consequences on personnel, environment, society, economy and company are studied. The REA model is used to monetize the damage of pipeline oil spill to ecological environment. Because of the limited research level, the data of the model still need more perfect information, and there are still some deficiencies in the comprehensiveness of the model, which will be the key research direction in the future.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE988.2

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