天然气管网的脆弱性和鲁棒性研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 14:30

本文选题：鲁棒性 + 脆弱度　；参考：《西南石油大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着人们对天然气需求的日益增加,天然气管道运输方式作为其主要的输送方式,也显示了它的重要性。越来越多管道的建设,形成并发展了天然气管网,但是,输气系统自身结构老化,以及自然灾害、恐怖袭击等突发事件都给天然气管网供气安全带来了严重威胁。因此,供气安全问题已经成为整个城市安全和防灾系统的重要组成部分。本文研究了天然气管网的脆弱性,从另一个角度入手,对天然气管网系统的风险评价做了研究,在导师的指导下,将"鲁棒性"概念引入到天然气管网系统中,研究了天然气管网系统的鲁棒性。通过对天然气管网的分析,总结了形成天然气管网脆弱性的原因。将天然气管网鲁棒性的研究分为两部分,天然气管网连接鲁棒性的研究和天然气管网恢复鲁棒性的研究。在进行天然气管网连接鲁棒性建模时,从连接鲁棒性的定义出发,将管网连接鲁棒性和管网脆弱性分别看做哲学思想"木桶效应"的"盛水量"和最低木板的"高度"。从连接鲁棒性的反面,脆弱性,进行连接鲁棒性的分析研究。利用谱聚类的方法,根据一定的准则,经过集簇得到天然气管网的分层模型,对分层模型解簇,仍然按照一定的准则,找到管网中失效后对整个管网供气能力影响较大的管段,并综合考虑管段受损的损伤需求,最终求得管网中最为脆弱部分的脆弱度,从而实现连接鲁棒性的定量分析。研究连接鲁棒性,可以找到管网系统中最为脆弱的部分,使得管网管理者和安全生产工作人员更经济有效的对天然气管网进行维护,保证天然气管网的正常供气,避免事故的发生。在天然气管网恢复鲁棒性的建模中,应用图论和复杂网络理论的知识,对天然气管网进行拓扑分析,求得天然气管网的度矩阵和邻接矩阵,最终求得拉普拉斯矩阵的代数连通度,衡量管网的恢复鲁棒性。通过对管网恢复鲁棒性的分析研究,可以为管网扩建人员在进行设计管道时提供参考,使管网在发生事故后,更快的恢复到正常供气的状态。制定了提高天然气管网鲁棒性的措施。通过给管网增加冗余管道、提高构件和管道的质量、加强管网运营能力、升级管网安全系统等方面制定了措施,计算了在增加了冗余管道和提高管道损伤需求的情况下,天然气管网鲁棒性的变化,验证了措施的正确性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing demand for natural gas, natural gas pipeline transportation as its main mode of transportation, also shows its importance. More and more pipeline construction has formed and developed the natural gas pipeline network. However, the aging structure of the gas transmission system itself, as well as natural disasters, terrorist attacks and other emergencies have brought serious threats to the gas supply safety of the natural gas pipeline network. Therefore, gas supply safety has become an important part of the whole city safety and disaster prevention system. In this paper, the vulnerability of natural gas pipeline network is studied, and the risk assessment of natural gas pipeline network system is studied from another angle. Under the guidance of tutor, the concept of "robustness" is introduced into the natural gas network system. The robustness of natural gas network system is studied. Through the analysis of the natural gas network, the reason of forming the vulnerability of the natural gas network is summarized. The research on the robustness of natural gas network is divided into two parts: the robustness of natural gas network connection and the research of natural gas network restoration robustness. In the modeling of connection robustness of natural gas networks, from the definition of connection robustness, the connection robustness and vulnerability of pipeline network are regarded as the "water content" of the "bucket effect" and the "height" of the lowest plank, respectively. From the reverse of link robustness, vulnerability, link robustness analysis and research. By using spectral clustering method, according to certain criteria, the stratified model of natural gas pipe network is obtained by clustering. Finally, the vulnerability of the most vulnerable part of the pipe network is obtained by considering the damage demand of the damaged pipe segment, and the quantitative analysis of the connection robustness is realized. In order to find the most vulnerable part of the pipe network system by studying the connection robustness, the pipe network managers and safety workers can maintain the natural gas network more economically and effectively, so as to ensure the normal gas supply of the natural gas network. Avoid an accident. In the modeling of natural gas network restoration robustness, using the knowledge of graph theory and complex network theory, the topological analysis of natural gas network is carried out, and the degree matrix and adjacent matrix of natural gas network are obtained. Finally, the algebraic connectivity of Laplace matrix is obtained, and the restoration robustness of pipe network is measured. Through the analysis and research on the robustness of the pipeline network restoration, it can provide a reference for the pipeline extension personnel to design the pipeline, so that the pipe network can recover to the normal gas supply state more quickly after the accident. The measures to improve the robustness of natural gas network are established. By adding redundant pipelines, improving the quality of components and pipelines, strengthening the network operation capacity, upgrading the network safety system and other aspects of the measures, the paper calculates that the redundant pipeline and pipeline damage requirements are increased. The change of the robustness of the natural gas network verifies the correctness of the measures.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE832.2

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