预测油气田产量和可采储量的广义Weibull模型

发布时间：2018-07-11 15:16

本文选题：预测 + 广义　；参考：《大庆石油地质与开发》2017年05期

【摘要】：广义Weibull概率密度函数在多个领域有着广泛的应用,其分布形态能较好地描述油气田开发过程中产量变化模式。依据广义Weibull概率密度函数的特征,建立了随开发时间变化的产量和累计产量预测模型;同时,新模型涵盖了几种特定产量预测模型,具有一定的广义性。通过实例验证表明,广义Weibull预测模型的预测效果较好,其预测年产量和累计产量的平均相对误差分别仅为2.15%和0.36%,误差小,精度高。说明该预测模型是可靠的,具有一定的实用性。
[Abstract]:The generalized Weibull probability density function is widely used in many fields, and its distribution form can well describe the model of production variation in the course of oil and gas field development. According to the characteristics of the generalized Weibull probability density function, a prediction model of output and cumulative production with development time is established, and the new model covers several specific production forecasting models, and has a certain generality. The experimental results show that the generalized Weibull prediction model has a good prediction effect. The average relative errors of the predicted annual output and cumulative output are only 2.15% and 0.36%, respectively. The errors are small and the accuracy is high. It shows that the prediction model is reliable and practical.
【作者单位】：上海石油天然气有限公司;北京华油海川能源技术开发有限公司;中海石油有限公司深圳分公司研究院;
【基金】：上海市科学技术委员会基金项目“平湖油气田后期勘探与开采技术研究”(13dz1203500)
【分类号】：TE328

【相似文献】