老龄海底油气管道弃置决策研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 08:39

【摘要】：针对我国老龄海底油气管道在弃置决策上缺少理论依据的问题,建立老龄海底油气管道弃置决策模型的结构流程,基于多属性效用理论,从4个维度进行分析,选取影响老龄海底管道安全寿命的工程因素、结构因素、风险因素和影响决策的成本因素,构建属性树;运用模糊理论建立模糊互补判断矩阵,综合专家意见计算各属性权重,并进行影响因素敏感性分析;确定老龄海底管道弃置决策评分准则,对属性树各因素取值进行量化,引入成本效益率量化成本因素;采用逻辑运算计算综合得分,根据综合得分进行弃置决策。工程实例应用表明:相比于传统决策方法仅凭设计寿命作为弃置依据,老龄海底管道弃置决策模型不仅避免了单一性,还能反应服役环境对管道的影响,有利于提高管道服役过程的经济性和安全性。
[Abstract]:In view of the lack of theoretical basis for the disposal decision of the aged submarine oil and gas pipelines in China, the structural process of the decision making model for the disposal of the aged submarine oil and gas pipelines is established. Based on the multi-attribute utility theory, this paper analyzes the problem from four dimensions. Select the engineering factor, structure factor, risk factor and cost factor that affect the safety life of the old submarine pipeline, construct the attribute tree, use the fuzzy theory to establish the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix, synthesize the expert opinion to calculate the weight of each attribute, The sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors, the determination of the evaluation criteria for the abandoned decision of the aged submarine pipeline, the quantification of the value of each factor in the attribute tree, the introduction of the cost-benefit rate to quantify the cost factor, the use of logical operation to calculate the comprehensive score, According to the comprehensive score to dispose of the decision. The application of engineering example shows that compared with the traditional decision method based on design life alone, the model not only avoids singularity, but also reflects the influence of service environment on pipeline. It is beneficial to improve the economy and safety of pipeline service process.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0802305,2017YFC0804501)
【分类号】：TE973.92

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