含水率预测模型的改进与应用

发布时间：2018-07-20 10:52

【摘要】：Logistic含水率预测模型和Yu含水率预测模型是最为简单、常用的含水率预测模型,但由于其渗流特征不明、模型优选技术缺乏,尤其是模型中待定参数与动态参数和静态参数关系不确定,使得各种控水措施缺乏理论支持,并且含水率预测应用显得随意。为此,在Willhite油相相渗关系式及其改进式的基础上,结合艾富罗斯实验结果,导出了4种改进的含水率预测模型及其对应水相相渗关系式。这些改进的含水率预测模型在特定条件下,可转化为Logistic含水率预测模型或Yu含水率预测模型,因而具备一定的广义性。对4种含水率预测模型的含水率变化特征进行分析认为,双曲式含水率预测模型适用于拟合"G"形含水率与开发时间变化规律;指数式含水率预测模型适用于拟合"S"形含水率与开发时间变化规律;调和式和复杂指数式含水率预测模型既可拟合"G"形含水率与开发时间变化规律,也可拟合"S"形含水率与开发时间变化规律。通过大庆油田萨北过渡带开发区块、平湖油气田H2油藏和雁木西油田古近-新近系油藏的应用,改进的含水率预测模型拟合精度高、效果较好,值得其他油田借鉴。
[Abstract]:Logistic water content prediction model and Yu water content prediction model are the most simple and commonly used water content prediction models. Especially, the uncertainty of the relationship between the undetermined parameters and the dynamic and static parameters in the model makes all kinds of water control measures lack of theoretical support, and the application of water content prediction appears random. Therefore, on the basis of Willhite oil phase permeability relationship and its improved formula, four improved water content prediction models and their corresponding water phase infiltration relations are derived by combining the experimental results of Epheros. These improved water content prediction models can be transformed into Logistic water content prediction model or Yu water content prediction model under certain conditions, so they have certain generality. Based on the analysis of the variation characteristics of water content in four kinds of water cut prediction models, it is concluded that the double curve water content prediction model is suitable for fitting the "G" shape water cut and the variation law of development time. The exponential water cut prediction model is suitable for fitting the "S" shape water cut and the variation law of the development time, and the harmonic and complex exponential water cut prediction models can not only fit the "G" shape water cut and the development time variation law, but also fit the model. It can also fit the change law of "S" shape water content and development time. The improved water cut prediction model has high fitting accuracy and good effect through the application of the development blocks in the transitional zone of the north of Daqing oil field, the H2 reservoir in Pinghu oil field and the Paleogene Neogene reservoir in Yanmuxi oilfield, which is worthy of reference by other oilfields.
【作者单位】：中国石油吐哈油田分公司勘探开发研究院;
【基金】：中国石油科技重大专项(2017E-04-07)
【分类号】：TE341

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