煤层气水平井产能预测模型及其适用性研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 14:20

【摘要】：为了准确选择不同生产类型煤层气井的产能预测模型,根据数理统计理论,并通过实例分析讨论了基于时间序列的翁氏模型、月产/累产比模型及灰色系统模型在煤层气水平井的产能拟合和预测中的有效性、适用性及差异性。研究表明:3种模型均能对煤层气井的生产历史进行很好地拟合,并进行准确预测,但又各有差别。翁氏模型对产量变化平稳、波动小的井预测准确,波动大时预测误差大;月产/累产比模型可进行中长期预测,但受递减规律的影响;灰色系统模型对生产井递减阶段拟合度及预测精度高,但误差随递减数据的波动变大。因此,应针对煤层气井的生产阶段、生产特征和目的,有选择地应用。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately select the productivity prediction model of coalbed methane wells of different production types, according to mathematical statistics theory, Weng's model based on time series is analyzed and discussed by an example. The effectiveness, applicability and difference of monthly yield / cumulative production ratio model and grey system model in productivity fitting and prediction of coalbed methane horizontal wells. The research shows that the production history of coalbed methane wells can be fitted well by three kinds of models, and the prediction is accurate, but there are differences between them. Weng's model is accurate for the well with small fluctuation, and the prediction error is large when the fluctuation is large, the monthly production / cumulative production ratio model can be used for medium and long term prediction, but it is affected by the decline law. The grey system model has high fitting and prediction accuracy for the decline stage of production well, but the error increases with the fluctuation of decline data. Therefore, selective application should be made to the production stage, production characteristics and purpose of coalbed methane wells.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(北京)能源学院;煤层气开发利用国家工程中心煤储层实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41272175);国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(41502157)
【分类号】：TE328

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